Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
Issued by NWS Honolulu, HI
490 FXHW60 PHFO 250635 AFDHFO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 835 PM HST Fri May 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A high pressure ridge will remain in place north of the state through much of next week. Expect moderate to locally breezy trade winds with brief passing showers favoring windward and mountain areas of each island in the overnight to early morning hours. && .DISCUSSION... Satellite imagery this evening over Hawaii shows high level cirrus clouds associated with a subtropical jet stream outlining an upper level ridge over the islands. Two upper level lows as shown on water vapor imagery west and northwest of Kauai, will not produce much impact to our weather over the next few days. A fairly stable weather pattern remains in place with subsidence inversion heights ranging from 5,000 to 7,000 feet above sea level. This means mostly isolated to scattered showers will prevail as trade winds push the clouds up and over the windward mountain slopes of each island. Only isolated showers are possible over the typically drier leeward areas. Subtle day to day changes are forecast in island weather lasting into the middle of next week. && .AVIATION... Moderate to breezy easterly trade will persist across the Hawaiian Islands through tomorrow. Sct SHRA will favor windward and mauka areas, with greater coverage expected during the overnight hours. Brief MVFR conds are possible in moderate showers. Otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail. AIRMET Sierra is in effect for mtn obsc for windward locations on all islands. AIRMET Tango is in effect for moderate low level turb downwind of terrain due to the breezy trade winds. && .MARINE... High pressure north of the state will maintain fresh to strong trade winds across the island chain through Saturday. A Small Craft Advisory (SCA) remains in effect for most waters around Maui County and the Big Island, as well as the northwest Kauai waters, through 6 AM Saturday. For the windiest waters around Maui and the Big Island, the SCA runs through 6 PM Saturday. A trough will amplify and linger west of the islands this weekend through the middle of next week, resulting in a slight easing of the trades and a shift to a more east-southeast direction over the western end of the state. Moderate to locally strong easterly trades will prevail over the eastern waters. South shore surf will remain small and below the summer average through the middle of next week, with only small and inconsistent pulses of southwest swell expected. The next significant south- southwest swell (200 deg) appears to move in toward the end of next week. East shore surf will decrease slightly this weekend through the middle of next week as the trades ease over and upstream of the islands. Surf along north shores will remain very small with a slight bump possible late Sunday through Monday. && .HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Saturday for Kauai Northwest Waters-Kaiwi Channel-Maui County Windward Waters. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM HST Saturday for Maalaea Bay- Pailolo Channel-Alenuihaha Channel-Big Island Leeward Waters-Big Island Southeast Waters. && $$ DISCUSSION...Bohlin AVIATION...SMW MARINE...Jelsema