Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS
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746 FXUS64 KJAN 301455 AAA AFDJAN Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Jackson MS 955 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 ...New MESOSCALE UPDATE... .MESOSCALE UPDATE... Issued at 955 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Local radars are showing showers and thunderstorms along/south of I- 20 and in eastern MS as a shortwave trough progresses through the area. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing throughout the day. Afternoon temperatures will range from the lower to mid 80s. Forecast remains on track and no adjustments were made. /SW/ && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 346 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Today and tonight...A few isolated showers/storms are occuring this morning over the southwestern portions of the area. Scattered storms will continue through the day, as short wave energy continues to move across the area. Expect any storms that develop to remain sub- severe, but a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out. Highs today will climb into the mid 80s for most of the area. Expect the bulk of the thunderstorm activity to diminish through the evening, but isolated showers/storms will continue to be possible overnight. /15/ Friday through Thursday... Not much change has been made to the forecast for the longterm period. Early morning global guidance continue to highlight a 1026 mb sfc high shifting east across the eastern CONUS heading into the next work week. At the same time, southerly flow aloft in the low levels will help keep moist and unstable air flowing into the Gulf Coast and Southern Plains, as the sfc boundary continues to shift further south towards the Florida Panhandle. Recent model consensus continue to show two upper-level low pressure systems shifting east out of the Great Plains and towards the Great Lakes Region around this timeframe. One of these low pressure systems will pass east of our CWA Friday night into Saturday and the other one will pass east of our forecast area starting around Sunday into the early part of next week. With the moist air mass in place over our area, the environment will support strong to isolated severe storms across much of central MS. No changes have been made to the severe graphic for Friday/Saturday and the Marginal Risk (1 out of 5) has been maintained for much of the forecast area. Forecast confidence regarding the exact timing of this system is still low at the moment, however we should start to have a better understanding of the timing of this event as confidence start to increase. The threat for severe weather will continue heading into Saturday. A highlighted Marginal Risk has been introduced for much of central MS for this timeframe. In addition to the severe potential, PWAT values up to 2.0 inches will support some storms producing locally heavy downpours at times through the weekend. Given current trends, a limited flash flooding graphic will likely be introduced. Expect updates to the severe graphics as we continue to monitor trends and forecast confidence starts to increase. Microbursts producing localized damaging wind gusts, hail, and heavy rain will be a possibility through the middle of next week. Rain chances will continue through Thursday as temperatures and moisture increase as low-level flow increase across the southeast US bringing additional chances for afternoon showers and storms across our CWA. /CR/ && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 626 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024 Showers and thunderstorms are bringing tempo MVFR conditions to JAN/HKS/MEI this morning and this will continue over the next few hours. The remain sites are VFR and outside any shower/thunder activity expect sites to remain VFR through the period. Expect any thunderstorm activity to diminish this evening, but an isolated storm or two will be possible overnight. The winds will mainly be light out of the east to southeast through the period./15/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Jackson 83 67 88 69 / 60 10 30 30 Meridian 84 65 90 68 / 60 10 10 20 Vicksburg 85 69 87 69 / 60 20 50 40 Hattiesburg 89 67 91 71 / 30 20 20 20 Natchez 86 69 86 69 / 60 10 60 30 Greenville 86 69 87 71 / 30 30 50 60 Greenwood 85 69 88 69 / 30 20 30 50 && .JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MS...None. LA...None. AR...None. && $$ 15/CR/15