Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
841 FXUS65 KREV 310852 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 152 AM PDT Fri May 31 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Above average temperatures and dry conditions will persist through early next week with a couple of passing systems enhancing afternoon winds Saturday and again Monday. Confidence is high in a significant warmup for the middle to late part of next week as temperatures approach 100 degrees in hottest western NV valleys. && .DISCUSSION... * UP-FRONT: No major changes to the forecast. We`re still on track to see some light precipitation across the northern portion of our CWA on Saturday and Monday. A noteworthy warm-up is in store the middle of next week, with lower NV valleys likely reaching into the upper 90`s, if not exceeding 100 degrees. Otherwise, for the foreseeable future it will remain sunny, hot, and dry. * CHANCES FOR PRECIP: Among the most recent CAMs (Convection- Allowing Models), there seems to be an increasing probability of some light rain across the region from US-50 northward Saturday evening. There`s going to be a very weak and dry shortwave trough passing through Saturday that may have just enough forcing to pop a few showers. Looking at soundings from Lassen to Pershing counties Saturday night, it seems like it may just be virga as of right now. However, if we do get a slightly heavier shower it may overcome the low-level dry air and there may be a few sprinkles of rain. Looking ahead to Monday: Another shortwave trough will be passing by, this time with more upper- level support from a stronger jetstreak, promoting widespread ascent. Most of the rain will be kept north of US-50 again, and this time the chance for rain actually hitting the ground will be significantly higher. As of right now these just look like quick moving, light showers. * TEMPS & WIND: Get ready for a significant increase in temperatures next week. Lower NV valleys may hit the 100 degree mark for the first time this year, which for early June is historically uncommon. The record high temperatures of 100+ don`t come until mid-late June, according to the Reno-Tahoe Airport records. The EC EFI is already highlighting Thursday and Friday`s heat wave as a climatologically significant event. Even in Sierra valleys high temperatures will get up to the mid-80`s. So if you haven`t already, make sure you have working A/C and/or access to a cooling device for next week. Even overnight lows will be relatively warm. Winds will be breezy through next week, with enhanced zephyr breezes Saturday and Monday. * IMPACTS & EXTENDED OUTLOOK: Continue to exercise extreme caution if you are recreating near fast and cold streams as hypothermia can quickly catch you off guard if you are not prepared. Also, expect rivers and streams to have higher flows during the overnight hours due to increased snowmelt during the day followed by the lag time it takes for that water to flow down down the mountain. Looking ahead into late next week, with this magnitude of heat, we cannot completely rule out a storm or two, especially Thursday and Friday after we have had a couple of really hot days. As of right now, ensembles haven`t picked up on any showers next week, but over the next few days be prepared to see PoPs increase. Stronger, heavier showers and possible thunderstorms across western NV and the Sierra will become increasingly likely late next week. -Justin && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail through Friday and Saturday. We`ll see increased winds out of the WSW on Saturday, with gusts peaking around 25-30 kts. Expect some brief light to moderate turbulence Saturday. -Justin && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$