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226
FXUS64 KMAF 290228
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
928 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
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Issued at 923 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

The severe thunderstorm threat across the region has abated, with
activity continuing to move east and south of the area. Lingering
showers and a few storms are possible tonight, mainly across the
northern Permian Basin and across portions of Terrell County, but
gusty winds and lightning are the only concerns at this time.
Additionally, the Heat Advisory that was in effect for the Davis
Mountains south to the Big Bend has expired, and while another
round of hot conditions is expected on Wednesday, temperatures
look to be a bit borderline, thus will defer to the next forecast
package for any decisions on heat products for Wednesday
afternoon. Have updated PoP/Wx grids reflecting trends this
evening, but otherwise, the forecast is on track.

JP
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&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday night)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

An MCS to the northeast of the area moving southeast through north
Texas has pushed an outflow boundary to the southwest this afternoon
as apparent on visible satellite imagery , with storms possible this
evening (especially across Pecos County or the southeastern Permian
Basin), quickly growing upscale and moving east out of the area.
Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats with these
storms, but an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out in the most
intense and rapidly developing storms. Associated with increased
moisture behind the outflow boundary, easterly winds advecting in
higher boundary layer moisture, as well as lower clouds and stratus
are forecast for the northeastern Permian Basin. These low clouds
and increased high clouds farther southwest will inhibit radiational
cooling tonight with lows above average and in the 60s, 70s along
the Rio Grande and Pecos River in West Texas, and upper 50s in
northernmost Lea County. Similarly, cloud cover will limit
diurnal heating tomorrow, with temperatures much cooler and closer
to if not slightly below average for most of the Permian Basin
and Lea County, and a few degrees above average in the 90s to the
southwest over most of Eddy County, the western Permian Basin,
and southwest of the Pecos River. Highs 5 to 10 degrees above
average with 100s along the Rio Grande and parts of the Stockton
Plateau are also forecast. Highs will be lowest in
northeasternmost parts of the area farthest behind the outflow
boundary from today`s storms, and the outflow boundary is expected
to progress as far west as the Southeast New Mexico/West Texas
border before washing out and becoming less distinct. It will
remain hot along/south of the Pecos River, especially south of
Highway 90. Weak ridging overhead is likely to limit most
shower/storm activity, but convective initiation as a result of
heating of elevated terrain in the Davis Mountains and Pecos
County is still possible. A 35+ kt LLJ providing 35-45kts of deep
shear will help maintain updrafts and keep any storms that form
persistent into tomorrow evening, before the boundary layer
stabilizes with loss of daytime heating. Lows remain a few degrees
above average for late May tomorrow night as widespread cloud
cover persists, with 60s aside from 70s near the Rio Grande, over
the eastern Stockton Plateau, and southeastern Permian Basin.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 124 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

After a "down" day Wednesday, convective chances pick up once again
Thursday. Weak disturbances within zonal flow aloft along with a
possible outflow boundary from overnight storms to our north will
help support another round of storms by Thursday afternoon. Best
coverage will be across the northern and eastern Permian Basin where
instability is greatest and the best shear exists. Temperatures will
climb back above normal with highs mostly in the 90s with 100s in
the lower river valleys.

Storm chances continue Friday into the weekend as we keep easterly
flow and moisture at the surface and weak shortwaves pass aloft. The
best chance for widespread storms looks to be Saturday afternoon as
a stronger wave arrives.

Ridging builds in early next week and the heat will be on!
Widespread 100s will be on the table beginning Monday into at least
Wednesday with more heat products likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Outflow boundary will continue moving west across the forecast area
with winds at all terminals out of the E/ESE. KCNM remains SW at
this time with outflow boundary passage and wind direction change
to the ESE at 02-03Z. Winds elsewhere remain gusty at 20 to 30
knots with gusts to 35 to 45 knots. BLDU remains an issues with
VIS reductions of 2-5SM. VIS reductions will diminish after 03Z.

TS chances look to diminish through the evening hours, with low-
end chances up near KHOB. However, confidence remain lows with no
mention in TAF.

Clouds generally SCT to OVC, with CIG heights of 050-100. MVFR CIG
heights possible through the remainder of the evening, lifting to
100-200 during the overnight and morning timeframe

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 340 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions are expected through next week,
mainly over the higher terrain west of the Pecos on the west side of
a developing dryline each day.  Critical minimum relative humidities
will coincide with increased 20-ft winds each afternoon.  ERCs
remain above the 95th percentile in these areas.  However, fuel
density and limited opportunities for fire starts remain low.  The
one exception will be Saturday afternoon, when the dryline will be
far enough west that lightning starts will be possible in the
Sacramento Foothills, Guadalupes, and areas directly south to the
Presidio Valley.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               66  86  68  95 /  30  30  10  30
Carlsbad                 65  95  65  99 /  10  10  10   0
Dryden                   70  98  73  98 /  40  20  10  20
Fort Stockton            68  99  70 101 /  20  30  10  20
Guadalupe Pass           63  89  64  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    62  88  65  96 /  10  20  10  10
Marfa                    56  95  54  94 /  20  10  10  10
Midland Intl Airport     66  90  69  97 /  20  20  10  20
Odessa                   67  92  70  98 /  20  20  10  20
Wink                     68  98  70 102 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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TX...None.
NM...None.
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&&

$$

SHORT TERM...84
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...99