Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
Issued by NWS Key West, FL
830 FXUS62 KKEY 200254 AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1054 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1054 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 Winds are on a downward trend after a surge developed in the late afternoon and early evening hours. Winds quickly clocked around from the southwest, becoming west to northwest and reaching sustained speeds of around 15 knots. Within the last hour these winds are quickly coming down and boxing around the compass again. Convection that was out across the southeast Gulf of Mexico dissipated well before it got to our waters. Meanwhile, convection is blossoming along an outflow boundary from prior showers and thunderstorms that develop along the north coast of Cuba. These showers and thunderstorms have entered the Straits of Florida between the Marathon Humps and Cay Sal Bank. This current activity is trekking north to northeast. Going through the overnight, additional convection is possible given how many ghost boundaries are out there. Where and which ones will light up remains questionable. Hi-res CAMs suggest that an outflow boundary moving northwest from the convection centered near Cay Sal Bank will have the "best" potential of triggering new convection. It remains to be seen how far northwest it will get and if it will stall across the island chain overnight. For now will maintain 40 percent PoPs given the uncertainties listed above. Nonetheless, tonight through Tuesday morning will be the best period to see accumulating rain in the past 2 weeks. && .MARINE... Issued at 1054 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 The western extent of a low-level ridge axis that extends west-northwest has begun to loosen its grip across the Florida Keys. At the same time a frontal boundary is sliding south across the Florida Peninsula, which has shifted breezes from the northwest. These breezes will briefly go light and variable overnight before becoming south to southwest by Monday morning. Lastly, there may be a break in the rain-free conditions tonight through Tuesday, followed by variable breezes turning to the east Wednesday through Thursday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1054 PM EDT Sun May 19 2024 VFR conditions will prevail for now. Watching for the potential for showers and thunderstorms to develop along remnant boundaries. Given uncertainty on the placement of individual boundaries and which boundaries will trigger convection, will at least maintain mentions of VCSH but have omitted TS for a later update. && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ Public/Marine/Fire...LIW Aviation/Nowcasts....LIW Data Acquisition.....DR Visit us on the web at weather.gov/key Follow us on Facebook and Twitter at: www.facebook.com/nwskeywest www.twitter.com/nwskeywest