-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
666
FXUS62 KILM 220142
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
942 PM EDT Tue May 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift offshore bringing warmer temperatures
for the mid to late week period. A stalling cold front and
passing disturbances aloft will bring rain chances starting
Fri and continuing into the upcoming Memorial holiday weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Upped portions of the patchy fog to areas of fog given latest
short term guidance. Latest 11.2-3.9 micron sat imagery not
indicating any fog or low stratus, with local sfc obs also
illustrating. The 2 will simultaneously be closely monitored
overnight given the expectation/prognostication remains
favorable.

Marine, sfc pg relaxed, result wind speeds less than 10 kt. Sfc
pressure pattern yields ENE-ESE wind directions. Seas generally
around 2 ft, mainly from an ENE swell with a 1 ft or less wind
wave on top.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIgh pressure still to our north, bringing a dewpoint-suppressing
NE wind (well, outside of the seabreeze, that is). The high
will be retreating tonight leaving behind some light and
variable winds and the stage seems set for a little fog, though
vsby restrictions may only be limited to aviation, i.e. no worse
than 2 SM. As a very light southerly breeze becomes established
Wednesday the dewpoints will increase slowly and the afternoon
will warm well into the 80s away from the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
What can be a typical late spring pattern continues to be
advertised by short and long range guidance. This is reflected
in a mid level pattern becoming more east/west oriented in time
with a similar configured frontal zone at the surface. Embedded
shortwaves and or mesoscale convective systems roll by
occasionally with this pattern. For the short term the best
pops/forcing occur Friday afternoon and evening with a more
uncertain chance Thursday evening. Temperatures on the rise
throughout aided in part by a westerly/downslope component.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Somewhat unsettled pattern continues into next week with the
same features mentioned in the short term. A drying trend is
noted very late in the period as a stronger shortwave across the
Great Lakes pushes the stationary/cold front to the south. Some
dewpoints in the 60s which by that time will have been absent
from the observations for a while be welcome.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR to dominate this evening with clear skies, few thin cirrus
and contrails, under ESE-SE winds 5 kt or less. Winds will
become calm most if not across all terminals later this evening
and likely prevail thru the overnight. Low level or sfc based
moisture avbl for fog with possible onshore movement of low
clouds Cape Fear north. This could keep fog development to a
minimal for ILM . Nevertheless, the fog/low stratus will run
MVFR to occasionally IFR that should quickly dissipate around
12Z. Light and variable winds 5 kt or less to dominate the
morning. Will see diurnally driven Cu once again around 5k ft.
Another active aftn/early evening sea breeze with SE- SSE 10 kt
at the coastal terminals with winds becoming S-SW around 5 kt
inland terminals.

Extended Outlook...Mostly VFR outside morning low clouds/fog,
mainly through Thu morning. Periodic flight restrictions
possible with showers/storms coverage starting Fri and
continuing into the upcoming weekend.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Through Wednesday...Very light pressure gradient and the absence
of any long period swell means tranquil conditions through the
period. The weak high will initially be centered to our north,
but the ridge axis will retreat heading into Wednesday. This
will turn NE (and somewhat variable) wind to the SE by the end
of the period.

Wednesday Night through Sunday...Its all but summer on the
calendar across the coastal waters through the period. Winds
will be southwest in a range of 10- 15 knots. Not a lot of
variability expected in seas as well with a values wobbling
in a range of 2-4 feet.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...SHK
LONG TERM...SHK
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...SHK/MBB