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661
FXUS61 KPHI 300714
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
314 AM EDT Thu May 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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High pressure builds in today and holds dominant influence over
the region into Sunday. Unsettled conditions could return by
late Sunday and continue into the middle of next week.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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The upper low and surface front that brought the showers/clouds
to many areas overnight continues to move slowly E/NE across ern
PA/NJ. A few tstms/showers will continue into the early morning
before improvement arrives from W to E across the region. Areas
of fog will diminish as drier air flows over the region after
sunrise. Later today, diurnal Cu/Sc will develop so skies will
become partly cloudy after morning sunshine. Highs will be
cooler than recent days with temperatures topping out in the
mid/upper 60s for the N/NW areas and reaching the low/mid 70s
elsewhere. North to Northwest winds will reach 10 to 15 mph by
late morning and some gusts in the low 20s (mph) will occur.

For tonight, high pressure will continue to build over the area.
Clear skies are expected and with the cool/dry air mass in
place, temperatures will dip to below normal readings for the
overnight. Lows will mostly be in the 40s with low 50s around
the metro areas and close to the shore. Winds will be light.
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.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
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High pressure will dominate over the area Friday through Saturday as
it gradually moves eastward from the midwestern states towards and
then off the east coast.

With surface high pressure in control of the region, expect a nice
and quiet short term with pleasant conditions. Both Friday and
Saturday will be beautiful sunny and dry days. We are looking at
highs in the 70s Friday with dewpoints in the 40s. For Saturday, we
are looking at highs near 80F with dewpoints mainly in the 40s. Both
days will feel very comfortable; being outdoors will be enjoyable.

Mainly clear skies will be present Friday night with light winds in
the forecast. This will lead to good radiational cooling with lows
mostly in the low to mid 50s except upper 40s over the southern
Poconos. By Saturday night, the high pressure center will be
offshore leading to winds turning more southerly with some
increasing mid and high clouds. This will keep it a little warmer
than Friday night with lows mostly in the mid to upper 50s.
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.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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The long range forecast remains a bit tricky and uncertain as the
upper level flow pattern becomes more complex. Sunday into Monday
there will be the next approaching upper level trough from the west
as it move eastward across Canada while at the same time a closed
low may stall south of the Canadian Maritimes. The approaching upper
trough will be trying to bring more shortwave energy and
unsettled weather to the area but it`s possible much of this
gets held at bay if the closed low over the western Atlantic
sets up more of a blocking pattern over the east coast. If this
occurs it could keep us mainly under the influence of an upper
level ridge sandwiched between these two systems. The upshot of
all this is that we do maintain some slight chances for
afternoon / evening showers and thunderstorms over the area for
Sunday and Monday with chances increasing some as we head into
Tuesday and Wednesday. So it`s not looking like a washout during
this period but there will be the potential for some bouts of
unsettled weather from showers and storms, again, mainly during
the afternoon and evening time periods. Temperatures during this
period will be seasonably warm with highs mostly in the low to
mid 80s and lows mainly in the 60s.
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.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

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.Today... Morning clouds/scattered showers and fog will diminish
between 11Z and 13Z with VFR conditions following. Diurnal Cu/Sc
are expected with BKN CIGS at times in the 15Z/18Z time frame. CIGS
should remain VFR with bases 040-050. North to Northwest winds 8
to 12 kts with gusts up to 20 kts at times. Medium/high confid.

.Tonight... VFR conditions are expected tonight with clear skies for
the most part. Light W to NW winds are expected. High confid.

Outlook...

Friday through Saturday night...VFR. High confidence.

Sunday...Mainly VFR. Sub-VFR cigs could develop for some sites by
the afternoon do to showers/storms. Moderate confidence.

Monday...Mainly VFR, though some sub-VFR cigs could linger. Moderate
confidence.
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.MARINE...

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Departing low pressure and an upper low will keep clouds and some
showers over the waters early today before high pressure begins to
build in. Fair weather will be around for the afternoon and into
tonight. Winds and seas will remain below SCA conditions. North to
Northwest winds mostly 10 to 15 kts.

Outlook...

Friday through Monday...No marine headlines anticipated.
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&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin
NEAR TERM...OHara
SHORT TERM...Fitzsimmons/Wunderlin
LONG TERM...Fitzsimmons
AVIATION...Fitzsimmons/OHara
MARINE...Fitzsimmons/OHara