640
FXUS65 KABQ 020031
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
631 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Cancelled both severe thunderstorm watches due to radar/lightning
trends and waning instability. Otherwise, forecast on track.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Strong to severe storms are expected again today east of the central
mountain chain, with a few gusty showers and storms in the central
portion of the state as well. Drier air enters from the west today,
allowing dry weather to prevail Sunday evening through at least the
middle of next week. During this timeframe, temperatures will soar
to the highest values of the season thus far and potentially
threaten a few record highs. Isolated showers and storms are
possible over the high terrain around the end of the week as above
average temperatures persist.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Upper ridge will effectively breakdown with the approach of a weak
shortwave trough tonight. Whatever lingering convection remains in
eastern NM will be pushed into TX as robust scouring of moisture
takes place behind it. A dramatic reduction in moisture overnight is
expected across much of the CWA, with several locales seeing 10 to
30 percent less in maximum RH values. Minimum temps will trend
similar to the previous night. The shortwave trough broadens in its
trek Sunday morning as it wobbles eastward. Dry west to southwest
sfc winds will prevail in the afternoon, becoming breezy across
portions of eastern NM. An exceptionally parched atmosphere will
lead to Chapstick Advisory level dryness, with most areas seeing
minimum humidity below 10 percent. High temperatures across the
central mts and eastward will see a few to several degrees of warmth
thanks to the compressional warming of those breezy downslope winds.
Most areas west of the central mts will see a few degrees of
cooling. Moderated conditions are expected Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A weak shortwave will graze the state on Monday, with little in the
way of sensible weather impacts other than an uptick in wind speeds
across the east and a few high clouds. There is high confidence that
ridging will continue to amplify over the Great Basin early next
week, placing dry northwesterly flow over New Mexico. The
downsloping wind across the east will help temperatures soar to the
highest values of the season with at least 105F looking increasingly
likely in Roswell on Tuesday. Locations as far north as I-40 in
eastern NM could see there first 100F day of the year too.

Then, model guidance begins to diverge around the middle of next
week. The deterministic EC and many EC ensemble members are favoring
the ridge amplifying over British Colombia, with a cut-off low to
the west of the Baja Peninsula. Meanwhile, the deterministic GFS and
most GEFS ensemble members show a ridge slowly sliding off to the
east and moving directly over the Intermountain West. While both
solutions would imply hot weather with above average temperatures
areawide, 500mb heights would be higher with the GEFS solution and
could result in record high temps. The NBM is showing a 13% chance
that Roswell reaches 110F on Thursday and a 58% chance that Socorro
reaches 100F for the first time this year. While this scenario would
be hotter, it could also involve some moisture sneaking up under the
ridge, increasing dewpoints and sparking a few showers and storms.
Most of the moisture would be in the mid-levels so it looks like it
would be a mix of dry and wet storms in the absence of a more potent
surge of moisture behind a backdoor front. The amplified ridge over
British Colombia and the Pacific Northwest would likely be drier for
most of the state, per cluster analysis QPF, but would increase the
chance of a backdoor front intruding from the northeast, painting a
cooler and wetter picture for the northeast and east-central plains
late next week and over the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 445 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Isolated storms moving east or northeast across eastern NM are
forecast to diminish this evening, but may impact KROW briefly
with gusty winds prior to 03Z. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail
and are forecast to persist with a potential exception across the
eastern plains overnight, where areas of low stratus may develop.
Forecast confidence too low to include in KTCC or KROW TAFs at
this time. Gusty south-southwest winds will gradually diminish
this evening and then redevelop late Sunday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Considerable drying expected tonight into Sunday, with overnight
recoveries seeing a reduction of as much as 10 to 30 percent. This
will lead to exceptionally low min RH Sunday, with widespread single
digit RH persisting for over 6 hrs. West to southwest winds will
increase, with breezy to locally windy conditions possible across
the northeast highlands and their adjacent plains. This will create
the potential for critical fire weather conditions across the
aforementioned zones in the afternoon. Currently, fuels seem to be
the limiting factor with a majority of the area seeing improvement
over the last few days from wetting rainfall. Elsewhere, elevated to
near-critical conditions will exist due to the extreme dryness.
Winds will trend lighter moving into Monday, keeping critical fire
weather conditions at bay, but low humidity will persist.
Temperatures will trend warmer through the work week but a backdoor
cold front may offer some cooling to eastern New Mexico Tuesday
night into Wednesday. All areas will see a modest increase in min RH
Wednesday through the end of the week. Showers and thunderstorms
reenter the forecast on Thursday into Friday, favoring the high
terrain.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  50  87  49  89 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  40  82  39  84 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  47  82  46  84 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  40  83  40  85 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  46  78  45  80 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  43  84  43  86 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  46  82  45  84 /   0   0   0   0
Magdalena.......................  54  85  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Datil...........................  49  82  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
Reserve.........................  39  86  39  88 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  55  91  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  41  76  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  56  81  55  82 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  49  84  50  86 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  43  78  42  79 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  40  70  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  35  76  33  77 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  44  84  42  85 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  44  80  47  82 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  53  89  52  91 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  54  83  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  52  87  51  89 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  60  88  59  89 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  59  89  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  57  92  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  59  91  58  92 /   0   0   0   0
Belen...........................  54  92  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
Bernalillo......................  59  91  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Bosque Farms....................  54  92  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
Corrales........................  57  91  56  92 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  54  92  54  93 /   0   0   0   0
Placitas........................  59  87  58  88 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  59  90  58  91 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  59  95  58  96 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  56  82  54  83 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  55  84  54  85 /   0   0   0   0
Edgewood........................  53  84  53  86 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  47  86  48  88 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  50  82  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
Mountainair.....................  53  85  53  85 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  50  85  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  56  89  58  89 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  54  83  54  84 /   5   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  49  83  50  84 /  20   5   0   5
Raton...........................  46  87  47  89 /  10   0   0   0
Springer........................  47  88  48  89 /  10   0   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  48  83  50  86 /   5   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  56  90  56  90 /  20  10   0   5
Roy.............................  53  87  52  88 /  10   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  58  95  55  96 /  10   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  57  91  58  92 /   5   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  59  95  56  95 /  10   0   0   0
Clovis..........................  60  94  59  97 /  20   0   0   0
Portales........................  59  96  57  99 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  59  96  57  97 /   5   0   0   0
Roswell.........................  63 102  63 102 /  20   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  56  93  61  94 /  10   0   0   0
Elk.............................  54  90  57  92 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...11