Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA
895
FNUS71 KAKQ 220956
FWSAKQ
Spot Forecast for CSGL Mapleton...NCWRC
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
556 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 EDT on May 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service at 757-899-5734.
.DISCUSSION...
Patchy early morning fog should dissipate by around 8 AM.
Otherwise, sunny, dry, and well mixed today with a light SW wind.
A cold front approaches from the northwest Thursday afternoon
bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms. Daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms continue Friday and into the weekend as
the front stalls over the area.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest around 5 mph in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (13800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (45100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............2.
ADI.................21 early in the morning increasing to 64 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........9 7 10 13 17 17 18 18
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............72 76 79 81 83 84 86 85
RH..............76 66 60 54 49 48 43 45
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW S S
20 FT wind spd..3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5
20 FT wind gust.5 6 6 8 8 8 8 8
Mix hgt (kft)...1.9 2.6 3.5 4.4 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.5
Transp wind dir.SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.8 9 8 8 7 8 9 9
LVORI...........3 3 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............21 31 38 42 45 51 59 64
Haines index....5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..14 21 26 29 32 35 41 45
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR FR FR
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (15-25 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 65.
Max humidity........93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds around 5 mph early in the evening
becoming light.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 7 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (29500 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (2200 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................3 to 43.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........17 16 15 15 14 14 16 19 21 22 23 24
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Temp............83 82 78 75 73 72 71 70 69 69 68 67
RH..............47 51 60 69 73 79 81 81 84 84 87 90
20 FT wind dir..S S S S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 3 3
20 FT wind gust.8 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5
Mix hgt (kft)...3.8 2.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.9 8 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8
LVORI...........1 2 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 6
ADI.............43 4 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..30 15 3 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms late in the
afternoon. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........47 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph early
in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms late in the
afternoon.
Mixing height.......5700 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (3800 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (83600 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................4 early in the morning increasing to 109 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........25 25 25 28 34 42
Weather cov..... S CHC S CHC
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 10 20 20
Temp............66 70 78 84 86 89
RH..............93 87 67 57 51 47
20 ft wind......S 4 SW 5 SW 6 SW 6 SW 7 SW 7
20 ft wind gust.6 8 11 11 12 12
Mix hgt (ft)....500 700 2300 4000 5700 5500
Transport wind..S 9 SW 12 SW 12 SW 13 SW 15 SW 17
LVORI...........6 5 3 1 1 1
ADI.............4 11 33 59 94 109
Haines index....4 5 5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4 7 23 43 73 84
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR FAIR GOOD GOOD
$$
Forecaster...ZIMMERMAN
Requested by...Jennifer Prince
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414707.1/AKQ
.DELDT 05/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jennifer.prince@ncwildlife.org