949
FXUS61 KALY 021042
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
642 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Another dry and warm afternoon is expected today before a weak
disturbance brings a shower or two to portions of the area
tonight. Warm weather continues on Monday and Tuesday with
isolated showers and thunderstorms possible each day, mainly
across the higher terrain. Rain chances increase mid to late
week as a larger system and cold front approach from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
.UPDATE...As of 640 AM EDT, an upper level ridge will begin to
gradually weaken as an upper- level shortwave disturbance
approaches from the west. The approach of this disturbance will
continue to spread some high clouds across the region through
this afternoon but maintain dry weather. After another cool
morning with temperatures starting out in the 40s to lower 50s
in most areas, temperatures will rise into the 70s and 80s with
good mixing and 850 hPa temperatures between +12C and +14C.

While the upper- level shortwave will weaken as it moves across
our area later this afternoon and through tonight, enough
moisture may remain for a shower or two to occur, mainly across
western and southern areas. Any showers that do occur should be
very light and not amount to much if anything. Otherwise, skies
will trend mostly cloudy for the night with temperatures
falling into the 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level ridging will reestablish itself near our region
early in the week with it cresting just to our west. We will be
located within north to northwesterly flow aloft as some weak
upper level energy tracks up and over the ridge. Warm conditions
will continue with humidity levels increasing slightly each
day as low level flow turns more southerly with an area of high
pressure setting up to our east near eastern New England.
Enough instability should develop each afternoon for some
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms. Coverage
looks very sparse on Monday so PoPs were kept below slight
chance at this time. Slightly greater coverage is expected for
Tuesday so included slight chance PoPs and isolated coverage
wording. Most of the activity should favor the higher
elevations. Highs will reach the 80s in the valleys each day
with mid to upper 70s across the higher elevations.

A warm front ahead of our late week system could result in some
lingering showers across western areas Tuesday night. Lows will
fall into the mid-50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
After a nice stretch of dry weather, the long term forecast
period will feature a fairly wet pattern as a result of a
large-scale, upper-level disturbance...

Wednesday should begin dry for many, outside a few isolated to
scattered showers north and west of Albany, with weak upper
ridging and adjacent surface high pressure remaining in control.
However, shower chances increase across eastern New York and
western New England throughout the day Wednesday as the
aforementioned ridge weakens and shifts east and an upper-level,
closed low pressure system settles across the border of
Manitoba and Ontario. Narrow, negatively-tilted troughing
extending south and east through the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes
will abut the back side of the eastward- propagating ridge to
create a southwest to northeast moisture axis from the Gulf of
Mexico, increasing environmental moisture across the region.
Rain will gradually spread into the region from west- southwest
to east-northeast by late Wednesday morning/early Wednesday
afternoon as the upper low drifts south and east toward to upper
Midwest.

Broad cyclonic flow will remain in place through the remainder
of the extended forecast period as the low slowly slides south
and east into the Great Lakes by Saturday. Multiple rounds of
showers and possibly some thunderstorms will result from its
influence across the region with the best chance for widespread
rain likely spanning Wednesday night through Thursday. At this
time, there is still some uncertainty in the extent and strength
of any resultant thunderstorms throughout the end of the week
and into the weekend due to uncertainty in amount of instability
present across the region. Will continue to monitor the
convective potential throughout the coming days.

Wednesday will likely be the warmest day of the long term period
with highs anticipated in the mid 70s to low 80s. Thursday
through Saturday, highs will generally be in the mid/upper 60s
to mid/upper 70s with pockets of low 60s possible above 1500 ft.
Low temperatures will begin in the mid/upper 50s to low 60s
Wednesday night and Thursday night, falling to widespread 50s
Friday night and Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 12z Monday...VFR conditions prevail across the terminals
this morning as high clouds stream into the region ahead of a
weak disturbance. Despite increasing high cloud coverage and a
gradual lowering of ceilings later this afternoon, conditions
should remain VFR throughout the duration of the 12z TAF period.
In response to the passing weak disturbance, widely scattered
showers are possible later this afternoon and this evening.
However, with low confidence in where exactly these showers will
develop given their anticipated scattered nature, left any
mention of them out of the TAFs at this time.

Winds throughout the 12z period will begin light out of the
south to south west at speeds of 3-6 kt. A slight shift more to
the northwest will take place later this afternoon into this
evening as winds decrease to 2-4 kt for the overnight period.

Outlook...

Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Rathbun
NEAR TERM...Rathbun
SHORT TERM...Rathbun
LONG TERM...Gant
AVIATION...Gant