104
FXUS64 KAMA 311708
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1208 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

As of this writing, the coverage and intensity of showers and
thunderstorms seen on radar is far less than this time Thursday
morning as it appears the atmosphere may be fairly well worked
over from the more widespread showers and storms that developed
Thursday afternoon and evening. That said, once the precipitation
from this morning either dissipates or moves out of the area, the
atmosphere should have sufficient time to recover from late this
morning onward through the afternoon hours. If that occurs, then
expect more showers and storms to form over the higher terrain of
southeast Colorado and eastern New Mexico aided by the passage of
another minor upper level shortwave trof embedded in the overall
west northwest flow pattern. These showers and storms would then
track across the OK and TX Panhandles very late this afternoon
through tonight. A few storms will have the potential to become
severe, with large hail and damaging winds the primary hazards
given steep mid level lapse rates, plenty of available moisture,
an unstable atmosphere, and some shear. Heavy rainfall with any
of the strongest storms may also result in flooding or flash
flooding. SPC Day 1 Outlook seems plausible based on latest
available short range and hi-res model guidance.

For Saturday and Saturday night, another minor upper level
shortwave trof embedded in the overall quasi-zonal flow aloft is
expected to move across the region later that afternoon and
evening. With plenty of moisture in place along with sufficient
daytime heating and corresponding atmospheric instability and
sufficient shear values, expect another round of showers and
thunderstorms to develop Saturday afternoon along and east of the
leeside surface trof axis over the higher terrain to the west of
the forecast area. These storms should then move eastward across
the forecast area later Saturday afternoon and night. A few storms
may become severe given favorable parameters, with large hail and
damaging winds the primary hazards. In addition, heavy rainfall
from the strongest storms may result in flooding or flash
flooding.

02

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 356 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

The threat for thunderstorms diminishes somewhat both in pop values
and areal coverage for Sunday and Monday as heights and mid level
temperatures begin to rise across the southern high plains. Tuesday
through Thursday appear to be dry areawide as upper level ridging
builds over the region. The warmest day of the extended forecast
periods will likely be on Tuesday afternoon, with high temperatures
approaching or exceeding 100 degrees across parts of the region.
NBM temperatures and pops fit the above scenario and were
incorporated into the appropriate grids.

02

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024

VFR and fair weather conditions will persist at all terminals to
the mid afternoon hours. Then during the late afternoon a lines
of thunderstorms have a high chance of forming in the western
panhandles. These will move in a E to SE direction and will have a
high chance of impacting all terminals during the late afternoon
through evening. These thunderstorms may degrade conditions to
MVFR with a low chance of becoming IFR or less. The is a moderate
chance that ANY hail will occur and a low chance that severe hail
of 1 in or greater will occur. Winds will be gusty with the
passage of these thunderstorms with a low chance of 50+ kt gusts.
Post passage of the thunderstorms conditions have a high chance or
returning to VFR with a low chance of continued light rain
showers. Another round of thunderstorms with a low chance of
severe thunderstorms is expected for Saturday afternoon to evening.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  86  62  92 /  30  30  30  20
Beaver OK                  59  88  61  90 /  50  30  40  20
Boise City OK              54  86  59  93 /  40  40  30  10
Borger TX                  62  90  64  95 /  40  30  30  20
Boys Ranch TX              60  91  62  96 /  30  30  30  10
Canyon TX                  59  87  61  92 /  30  30  40  20
Clarendon TX               60  84  61  87 /  30  20  40  30
Dalhart TX                 55  87  58  93 /  40  30  30  10
Guymon OK                  56  87  59  92 /  40  40  40  20
Hereford TX                59  89  61  94 /  30  30  30  20
Lipscomb TX                60  86  62  88 /  40  20  40  20
Pampa TX                   60  86  63  89 /  30  30  40  20
Shamrock TX                61  85  62  86 /  30  20  40  30
Wellington TX              62  85  63  87 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...02
LONG TERM....02
AVIATION...98