Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
Issued by NWS Amarillo, TX
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358 FXUS64 KAMA 270838 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 338 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM ... (Today through Tuesday night) Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Light southeast breezes today will start to bring low level moisture back into the Panhandles. There may be some surface convergence across the southwest Texas Panhandle as a surface trough/developing dryline pushes into the southwest Texas Panhandle. This convergence combined with strong daytime heating and increasing moisture could help produce an isolated shower or thunderstorm in the south-central Texas Panhandle late this afternoon. But for now, confidence is not there to add any rain to the forecast for this scenario. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the Raton Mesa to the west of the Oklahoma Panhandle late this afternoon and early this evening. The westerly flow aloft along with an upper level short wave trough will help to bring this convection across the Oklahoma Panhandle tonight. As this short wave moves across the Panhandles overnight, it will encounter better moisture across the eastern Panhandles and it may help to spark additional showers and thunderstorms there late tonight. As we get into Tuesday there are a couple of different scenarios that could happen. One, a cold front moves southward through the Panhandles early Tuesday morning behind a much stronger short wave trough moving through the Great Lakes. If this cold front would happen to move through, then the better chance of convection could be to our west and south as the Panhandles could get overspread by a cool and stable air mass. Any convection that would try to move into our area from the mountains late Tuesday afternoon would tend to die as they moved into the more stable air mass over the Panhandles. The second scenario, that is looking a little more likely, is one where an outflow boundary may move west across the Panhandles Tuesday morning from convection that develops over north Texas/southwest Oklahoma just after sunrise. This outflow boundary would tend to wash out during the afternoon across the western Panhandles and the air mass over the area would have a chance to recover enough to produce another round of convection Tuesday afternoon. More convection would then likely move this way from the mountains as well and showers and thunderstorm chances would continue into Tuesday night. && .LONG TERM ... (Wednesday through Sunday) Issued at 335 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 In the midst of all the days with better rain chances throughout the week lies Wednesday, a day that`s consistently been tough to get a read on. The day may start off wet as lingering overnight convection from Tuesday could still be hanging around in some spots. Models still agree abundant deep layer moisture will be in our favor through the day, especially with high PWAT values already in place and additional theta-e advection on the way. However, models also agree that thick low to mid-level cloud decks will keep us much cooler, with highs topping out in the mid to upper 70s. While this would act to increase capping and limit destabilization potential, showers and general thunderstorms will still be possible as a minor shortwave perturbation impinges on upper level ridging atop the Plains later Wed afternoon and evening. The ECMWF is still on the bullish side for convective coverage and intensity, but overall model agreement for afternoon-evening showers/storms resides across the northwestern Panhandles in closer proximity to the shortwave, gradually shifting east-southeastward overnight (30-50% POPs). In contrast, Thursday had been a higher confidence day amongst guidance when they agree slightly stronger dynamics arrive in the form of a more well-defined shortwave. Now however, Thursday appears to suffer from similar caveats as Wednesday, with morning convection, outflow boundaries, and thick cloud cover throwing a wrench in the mix. If sufficient daytime heating can occur, shear, lift, moisture, and instability would likely be in place for organized thunderstorms across much of the area, possibly strong to severe (30-60% POPs). These trends will continue to be monitored closely. Heading towards the weekend and into next week, moisture will gradually come and go, along with additional perturbations within the flow, bringing more low-end shots at showers or storms. The two aforementioned days serve as a prime example of the uncertainty moving forward, despite having a persistent signal in a more active pattern. The vast majority of the Panhandles will have ample opportunities for precipitation at some point or another this week, but there`s just no guarantee that conditions pan out favorably on any given day. The outlook will continue to evolve on a daily basis moving forward, but probabilistic and deterministic trends suggest those that do find themselves on the wetter end of things could see healthy amounts of rain accumulation, potentially over a half inch to an inch by Sunday. Harrel && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1233 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Light east to southeast winds will prevail through the early morning hours. Winds will pick up some into the 10 to 15 knot range as they remain southeast during the day. Winds will then back again to the east and southeast this evening, but will remain around 10 knots. Skies are expected to remain VFR. There may be a stray shower or thunderstorm that affects the GUY TAF site late in this forecast, but confidence is too low to mention it in the forecast at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 91 61 85 58 / 0 10 40 70 Beaver OK 91 59 85 57 / 10 20 40 70 Boise City OK 86 54 82 54 / 0 20 50 60 Borger TX 94 62 88 60 / 0 10 40 70 Boys Ranch TX 93 61 90 59 / 0 10 40 60 Canyon TX 91 59 87 57 / 10 10 40 60 Clarendon TX 91 61 83 59 / 0 10 60 70 Dalhart TX 88 55 85 54 / 0 10 50 60 Guymon OK 89 56 84 56 / 0 20 40 70 Hereford TX 94 59 90 58 / 0 10 40 60 Lipscomb TX 91 60 84 59 / 0 20 40 70 Pampa TX 90 61 84 59 / 0 20 50 70 Shamrock TX 92 61 83 59 / 0 20 50 70 Wellington TX 94 64 85 60 / 0 20 60 70 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...15 LONG TERM....38 AVIATION...15