335
AXNT20 KNHC 230600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Thu May 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Significant Rainfall in the Caribbean: A deep layered trough
currently over eastern Cuba and near Jamaica will lift slowly
northeastward across central Caribbean Thu through Fri. This
feature is expected to combine with abundant tropical moisture to
support widespread deep convection across eastern Cuba,
Hispaniola and Puerto Rico through Fri. The latest model guidance
suggests the highest rainfall accumulations to be across southern
Hispaniola tonight and Thu. Residents in all the above locations
should remain alert for significant rainfall and potential flash
flooding. Please refer to your local weather office for more
specific information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is located near 12N42W and southward, and moving
westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
07N to 11N between 38W and 46W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guiana-Bissau
coast near Bissau, then curves southwestward across 06N20W to
05N25W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N25W across 03N30W to
06N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of the
trough from 02N to 06N between 16W and 25W, and near the ITCZ
from 01N to 07N between 29W and 38W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A board surface ridge persists from the Florida Panhandle
southwestward to south of Tampico, Mexico. Smoke and haze produced
by agricultural fires in Mexico is lingering over the western and
central Gulf. Latest observations indicate reduced visibilities of
4 to 6 nm mainly across the western Gulf. Moderate with locally
fresh E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are seen western and
south-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft
seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, hazy conditions will continue across all except
the northeastern Gulf through Thu. High pressure will remain to
the northeast of the Gulf through the end of the week, producing
moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds west of 90W, and gentle
to moderate winds east of 90W. Winds will become SE to S Thu
night through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section about a Significant
Rainfall Event.

A pronounced mid to upper-level trough extends from the northwest
Bahamas across eastern Cuba to Panama is providing strong
divergent flow across the central basin. Together with a surface
trough directing abundant moisture across the central basin,
scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring at the lee of
Cuba, near Jamaica and the Mona Passage. Moderate with locally
fresh E to ESE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present at the
eastern basin, Gulf of Honduras and between Jamaica and eastern
Cuba. Gentle E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail elsewhere in
the Caribbean Sea.

Smoke and haze due to agricultural fires in Central America
persists across the Gulf of Honduras, and offshore from Nicaragua
and Costa Rica. Latest observations reveal reduced visibilities
of 4 to 6 nm.

For the forecast, the mid to upper-level trough will begin to
lift northeastward Thu through Sat. This feature is going to
sustain active weather across the central basin, which will
gradually shift northeastward into the Atlantic waters through
Fri. Fresh to strong E to SE winds in the north-central basin
will shift NE tonight through Thu, while diminishing to mostly
fresh. Afterward, a broad and weak trough will prevail across the
north-central basin Thu night through Sat, yielding moderate
trade winds across the eastern basin and moderate to fresh winds
across northwestern basin. Smoke and haze is expected to spread
northwestward into the Yucatan coast.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid to upper-level trough extends southward from west of Bermuda
across 31N74W and the northwest Bahamas to beyond eastern Cuba.
Strong divergent flow east of the trough axis are coupling with
modest convergent southerly surface winds near a surface trough
over the southeast Bahamas to generate scattered moderate
convection from 18N to 26N between 62W and 78W, including waters
near Puerto Rico and the central and southeast Bahamas. Refer to
the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the
Atlantic.

A broad surface ridge related to a 1023 high near 27N50W is
supporting gentle winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft north of 23N between
25W and the Georgia/Florida coast. The exception is moderate SW to
W winds along with 4 to 6 ft seas north of 28N between 32W and
40W. Near the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands, fresh to strong NNE
to NE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft are evident north of 13N between
the Africa coast and 25W. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and
seas of 6 to 7 ft are evident near the tropical wave from 09N to
15N between 35W and 45W. Otherwise, moderate ENE to E winds and 5
to 6 ft seas are found from 06N to 23N between 25W and the Lesser
Antilles. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds along with
seas at 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will
drift eastward through Sat. A weak low pressure is expected to
develop along this trough just north of Hispaniola Thu night, and
then drift north-northeastward through Sat night, accompanied by
moderate to fresh winds and active weather.

$$

Chan