437
FXUS64 KBMX 011925
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
225 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 130 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

This afternoon.

A longwave trough is over the Deep South while expansive surface
high pressure was centered off the North Carolina Coast and a
stationary front extended from the Mid-South Region southeast
across our southwest counties and into the Western Florida
Panhandle. Waves of showers and some thunderstorms continue to
move east-northeast across the area with additional development
occurring across portions of East-Central Mississippi.

Expect mostly cloudy skies areawide this afternoon with continued
waves of showers with some thunderstorms. There remains a small
risk of a strong to severe storm capable of producing damaging
winds, but this risk is conditional and has been trimmed to only
include areas generally west of Interstate 65. Winds will remain
from the southeast from 6-12 mph. High temperatures will range
from the low 70s far north to the low 80s far southwest.

Tonight.

While the longwave trough moves east of the area overnight, an
unsettled zonal flow pattern is left in its wake, with a few
shortwave disturbances progged to continue to move east over the
area. Additionally, the diffuse surface boundary will persist
across the area, slowly moving to the northeast. The result will
be lingering clouds with continued chances for scattered showers
and the potential for a few thunderstorms overnight. The better
chances for activity will be across the eastern half of the
forecast area with slightly lower PoPs to the far northwest. There
will be some potential for some patchy fog to develop across
portions of the area before sunrise Sunday if winds decrease
enough and if there are some breaks in the cloud cover. Winds will
be light from the south at 3-6 mph. Low temperatures will range
from the lower 60s far east and northeast to the upper 60s
southwest.

Sunday.

More mid-level shortwaves will move over the area on Sunday while
some height rises occur over the Southern Plains through the day.
The diffuse boundary will lose further definition as it continues
to lift northeast toward Eastern Tennessee. Mostly cloudy skies
are expected with continued shower activity and a few
thunderstorms with the better chances across the southeast portion
of the forecast area. Winds will be from the south- southwest at
4-8 mph. High temperatures will range from near 80 in the higher
elevations east and northeast to the upper 80s far west and
southwest.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

No big changes from the previous forecast as the overall pattern
remains the same. Even better rain chances will be in place next
weekend, so stay stay tuned over the next few days to discuss the
impacts to the area.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 346 AM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

Monday through Friday.

High pressure builds in across the region on Monday with generally
weak flow aloft persisting through mid-week. This will lead to
largely diurnal thunderstorm activity for Central AL Monday and
Tuesday. The ridging begins to flatten and push southward as a
trough slides through the Upper Midwest on Wednesday. A frontal
boundary will push southward Wednesday through Friday leading to a
better focus for showers and storms. With the surface forcing in
place, along with northwesterly flow aloft, we`ll need to watch this
system in the coming days as it evolves to determine any severe
threat, but for now will just include increasing rain and
thunderstorm chances in the forecast for Thursday into Friday.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT SAT JUN 1 2024

Clouds will linger over much of the area with continued chances
for scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.
Expect chances for showers to persist overnight with best
potential across the eastern northern sites and the southern sites
with lowest chance at TCL. Some reduction in visibility will be
possible, especially across portions of the northern terminal
locations overnight, especially if there are any substantial
breaks in the cloud cover. Isolated showers with some
thunderstorms are again forecast on Sunday with the better chances
across the eastern northern sites and both southern terminals.
Thunderstorm potential is too low to include at any terminal
location through this cycle.

05

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances remain near or above 30 percent for Sunday and
become more isolated on Monday. Winds will become more southerly
tonight into Sunday. RH values will remain above 50 through
Tuesday night.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     63  83  63  89 /  70  40  20  20
Anniston    64  83  64  89 /  80  40  20  20
Birmingham  66  83  67  89 /  70  40  20  20
Tuscaloosa  68  86  67  89 /  60  30  10  20
Calera      65  84  66  89 /  70  40  20  20
Auburn      65  82  66  86 /  80  50  30  20
Montgomery  66  84  67  89 /  80  50  20  20
Troy        65  84  66  89 /  80  60  20  20

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...05