395
FXUS65 KBOU 270602
AFDBOU

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1202 AM MDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly dry and mild Memorial Day with light winds. Only an
  isolated late day shower or weak storm over the mountains south
  of I-70.

- Warm through the coming week. There will be limited late day
  thunderstorm activity on Tuesday with better coverage Wednesday
  through Friday. A few severe storms are possible on the plains
  with the highest threat on Thursday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 840 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Winds have decreased as scheduled with the loss of daytime heating
and mixing. A few clouds were still hanging on over the mountains
and in a band across the northern plains, but expect those to
clear out with further mid level drying later this evening and
overnight. This leads us to an absolutely gorgeous Memorial Day
weatherwise, with cool temperatures to start and slightly above
normal temperatures to finish. Lots of sunshine and light winds,
too, with only an isolated weak shower or storm possible over the
mountains south of I-70. Forecast is on track with only minor
adjustment for latest observations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Through Monday/...
Issued at 248 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

Weak convective cloudiness is around over the CWA this afternoon.
There is very little on the radars, a few returns over
northwestern Jackson County is about it. Temperatures are in the
mid 60s to mid 70s over the plains and lower foothills right now.
The strong northwesterly winds over the plains earlier today have
decreased somewhat at this time.

Models have moderately strong northwesterly flow aloft for the CWA
tonight, then weaker zonal flow is progged on Monday.  Concerning
synoptic scale energy, the QG fields have weak downward vertical
motion for the the CWA tonight and Monday.  Looking at the available
moisture tonight and Monday along with the instability expected will
go with no pops for any of the CWA tonight and 10%s in the mountains
and high valleys south of I-70 on Monday afternoon. Monday`s highs
look to be 1-4 C warmer than today`s readings.

&&

.LONG TERM /Monday night through Sunday/...
Issued at 240 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

The upper level ridge moves across the area Tuesday into Wednesday.
Low level moisture is limited across the plains Tuesday with a
chance of afternoon showers and thunderstorms. By Wednesday a
developing surface low will cause southeasterly winds to increase
with better low level moisture across the plains. Some of the
thunderstorms across the plains will be strong to severe.
Temperatures remain warm Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the 70s
and 80s across the plains.

A stronger system moves across the Rockies Thursday into Friday.
Temperatures remain quite warm Thursday with a better chance of
severe thunderstorms across the eastern plains. Once the cold front
moves through the area Thursday night, temperatures on Friday will
be about 10 degrees cooler. Lingering moisture, but limited
instability Friday afternoon, will lead to showers and some weak
embedded thunderstorms across the area.

A return to warmer and drier conditions is expected next weekend as
the upper level ridge builds back across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday/...
Issued at 1143 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Winds are taking slightly
longer to make the turn to southwest than expected, but they are
are still expected to remain a WSW component through the overnight
hours.

Tomorrow will bring northeasterly winds by 14Z - 15Z, and
transition to a more easterly component as peak heating persists
and the diurnal upslope kicks in between 18Z - 0Z. There is a low
probability (10%) that a storm may move south of APA in the
evening.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Barjenbruch
SHORT TERM....RJK
LONG TERM.....Stark
AVIATION...Bonner