Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO
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764 FXUS65 KBOU 240204 AFDBOU Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO 804 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Gusty winds from 55 to 65 mph in and near the northern foothills through 2 am. Snow showers will end by midnight in the mountains - Typical summertime pattern coming up this weekend with some scattered showers and storms across the high terrain. - Spotty elevated fire weather across the plains this weekend, mainly with stronger winds, but fuels remain on the greener side.&& .SHORT TERM /Through Friday/... Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 There is an upper low circulation over north central Wyoming at this time. South and southwesterly winds are increasing a bit over the Colorado northeast plains currently. Speeds over the plains are gusting from 15 to 25 mph. Temperatures over the plains are in the mid 70s to lower 80s F. Dew point temperatures are mostly in the 20s F, with 50s F over the far northeast corner. There is isolated convection over the mountains mainly in Grand, Jackson and Larimer Counties. There are also some Cumulus clouds over the far northeast corned along the dry line. Models show a weak upper trough axis to push eastwards across the CWA this evening. This is followed by moderately strong westerly flow aloft for the rest of tonight and all of Friday. There is downward synoptic scale energy in place for most of tonight and Friday. Models are still showing a cold front to push southward across the plains early this evening. There is very little CAPE over the forecast area after 00Z this evening. Precipitable water proggs are in the 0.2 to 0.5 inch range this evening, then 0.1 to 0.3 inch overnight and Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, they come up into the 0.2 to 0.5 inch range again. Will go with minimal pops early this evening, mainly over the alpine areas. On Friday, even less pops in the mountains and nothing elsewhere; it is stable and there is less heating than today. For temperatures, Friday`s highs look 3-6 C cooler than today`s and that is after a chilly start to the day. && .UPDATE... Issued at 755 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 A cold front has blasted its way across the plains with wind gusts in the 45-55 mph range. Meanwhile, subsidence associated with an upper level low to the north, combined with increasing cross- barrier flow was leading to very gusty winds in and near the foohills from Boulder north to the WY border. A few gusts in the 60-65 mph range will be possible through 2 am or so before slowly decreasing overnight. Meanwhile, snow showers will continue in the mtns thru midnight with an additional inch or so of accumulation in some areas. After midnight drier air will move in with activity gradually ending. Finally, may see some scattered front mainly over the Palmer Divide late tonight into early Fri morning. && .SHORT TERM /Through Friday/... Issued at 225 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 There is an upper low circulation over north central Wyoming at this time. South and southwesterly winds are increasing a bit over the Colorado northeast plains currently. Speeds over the plains are gusting from 15 to 25 mph. Temperatures over the plains are in the mid 70s to lower 80s F. Dew point temperatures are mostly in the 20s F, with 50s F over the far northeast corner. There is isolated convection over the mountains mainly in Grand, Jackson and Larimer Counties. There are also some Cumulus clouds over the far northeast corned along the dry line. Models show a weak upper trough axis to push eastwards across the CWA this evening. This is followed by moderately strong westerly flow aloft for the rest of tonight and all of Friday. There is downward synoptic scale energy in place for most of tonight and Friday. Models are still showing a cold front to push southward across the plains early this evening. There is very little CAPE over the forecast area after 00Z this evening. Precipitable water proggs are in the 0.2 to 0.5 inch range this evening, then 0.1 to 0.3 inch overnight and Friday morning. By Friday afternoon, they come up into the 0.2 to 0.5 inch range again. Will go with minimal pops early this evening, mainly over the alpine areas. On Friday, even less pops in the mountains and nothing elsewhere; it is stable and there is less heating than today. For temperatures, Friday`s highs look 3-6 C cooler than today`s and that is after a chilly start to the day. && .LONG TERM /Friday night through Thursday/... Issued at 224 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 Saturday...This looks like the best chances, 70-80%, for scattered showers and thunderstorms over the high terrain pushing off into the foothills as shortwave troughing pushes through the region. Stronger westerly winds are also likely, a 60% chance, of exceeding 45 MPH above 8,000 feet. Any fire weather concerns should be brief and spotty across the plains. Having driven across much of the plains this week, the finer fuels/grasses, look pretty green. Sunday...NBM is keeping better coverage of showers and storms across the region, though lower chances than Saturday, 30-40%. Guidance is however trying to dry us out a tad more in the wake of the passing shortwave trough of low pressure with shortwave ridging trying to kick in quicker. We did lower PoPs a tad but do keep the higher terrain in the better coverage of showers and storms. Given the tighter pressure gradient and jet streak to our north, winds will be a little stronger than on Saturday as well. Right now the signal shows a bit more widespread 30-45 MPH gusts during the afternoon hours from the higher terrain spreading across the northern I-25 corridor and adjacent plains. Memorial Day - Thursday...Temperatures begin to moderate back to above seasonal averages throughout the period with most rain chances confined to the higher elevations until sometime around mid-week where we could see some low-level moisture sneak back in from the southeast providing more showers across the region. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday/... Issued at 524 PM MDT Thu May 23 2024 Front was already crossing the area with gusty north winds behind it. Not sure what directions will occur after 01z as they could go more NW or NE. Confidence in either scenario is low at best. After 03z winds may become more east and then SE after 05z, in one scenario, or go from NW to WNW to SSW in the other scenario. On Fri, winds will be S or SSE by 12z and then SE by 19z. Otherwise VFR conditions thru the period. && .BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...RPK SHORT TERM...RJK LONG TERM....Heavener AVIATION...RPK