975
FXUS61 KBTV 041955
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
355 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Aside from an isolated shower, dry conditions will continue
through tonight as temperatures remain above normal. More
coverage of showers with a few thunderstorms is expected for
tomorrow, with slightly higher heat and humidity. Then the
pattern turns less hot and rather unsettled with periods of
showers on Thursday and through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 355 PM EDT Tuesday...For the vast majority of locations,
today marks the 7th consecutive day of dry weather. It was also
another very warm day with temperatures ranging through the 80s.
Widely isolated showers that were terrain driven may perk up
early this evening before losing steam with loss of heating, as
there will be little upper level forcing to maintain instability
tonight. That being said, any stronger shower/pulse
thunderstorm could survive as a relatively light rain shower
into the first part of the night, with some low PoPs indicated
into portions of south central Vermont in case showers from the
west can survive. As weak surface high pressure settles to our
southeast, some surface southerly flow will develop such that
overnight temperatures will be relatively warm compared to the
last couple of nights. The milder air will also be due to
increasing low level moisture contributed by west/southwest low
level flow around the ridge, as source air will be from the
Midwest where dew points are currently in the low to mid 60s.

For Wednesday into Wednesday night, an upper level ridge will be
dampened by a wave trying to drop southeastward out of southern
Quebec. Our region, extending eastward through northern New
England, looks to be in the sweet spot for higher instability
than to our south and west as we see some upper level height
falls while low level air continues to get a bit juicier with
weak warm air advection. As such, scattered showers and
thunderstorms will blossom, and potentially well before noontime
given progged CAPE being driven by the aforementioned upper
level wave rather than just surface heating. In fact, progged
precipitable water and instability both look to trend lower in
the afternoon, with better chances for additional showers and
thunderstorms tending to shift north and east during that
period. Overall, we remain unconcerned with widespread hazardous
weather given recent dryness, relatively weak forcing for
thunderstorms tomorrow. Will still need to watch for a spot or
two where a downpour could linger and produced heavy rain in a
small footprint, as cloud layer flow will be be pretty light.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A cold front passes through Thursday into Thursday night, bringing
widespread rainfall. The overall flow will be relatively light so
there will be the chance of some slow-moving or training showers.
However, the flow should be just fast enough to push the front
through and mostly limit this potential. The front will move to the
east of the region late Thursday night and there should be a decent
break in the precipitation after. Overall, thinking QPF will
generally be between 0.75 and 1.25 inches. While this is higher than
previously forecast, the flooding threat is still very limited.
Overall, the percentage of ensemble members forecasting over an
inch has not changed much from yesterday, still around 30%. However,
over 90% are now forecasting over 0.5 inches instead of 50-60%, so
the solutions mostly converged to around yesterday`s 75th
percentile. Therefore, it is unlikely that it trends much higher,
though there will still likely be localized higher amounts where the
heavier showers develop. Given the dry antecedent conditions, any
flash flooding is unlikely. The WPC has the region in a marginal
risk ERO for up to a 5 percent chance of flash flooding and that
seems reasonable, though it is probably in the low end of the range.
Mainstem river flooding is not a concern. Highs on Thursday will be
in the 70s to around 80 and lows Thursday night will be in the 50s
and low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An unsettled pattern will be in place during much of this period as
a closed off low will be lingering over the North Country. Overall,
shower coverage will increase during the day as diurnal heating and
cold air aloft cause instability and it will wane at night as the
atmosphere stabilizes. Embedded shortwaves will pivot around this
low and increase shower chances at different times and will provide
the lift to continue the showers overnight if they come through then.
Right now, it looks like showers will be more numerous through
Sunday and become a little more scattered starting Monday. The
closed off low finally looks to exit the region mid to late week and
the shower chances will subsequently become much less numerous.
Temperatures during this period will be below to around normal, but
persistence will be the trend with little change in temperatures
between each day.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Through 18Z Wednesday...VFR conditions for the 24 hours will
continue. Light, terrain driven winds have been present today
as expected. Overnight, aside from increasing southerly wind at
BTV to near 10 kts, little will change. A popup shower or two
is possible between 21-00z, and based on development of cumulus
think SLK has highest chances of being impacted where VCSH is
indicated. If a shower or two hits a taf site toward sunset,
given higher dwpts overnight, localized patchy fog is possible.
Confidence of IFR fog remains <10% at any site attm, although
SLK looks slightly more favorable at this time.


Outlook...

Wednesday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA, Slight
chance TSRA.
Thursday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Friday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Likely SHRA.
Friday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Likely SHRA.
Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SHRA.
Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local VFR possible. Likely SHRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Based on the current forecast, daily records are possible over
the next three days at some climate sites.

Record high maximum temperatures are possible today and
tomorrow, primarily at Massena and Montpelier. A record high
minimum temperature may occur at Plattsburgh for those nights.
Record daily precipitation is possible at Massena on Thursday.


Current Record High Temperatures:

June 4:
KMPV: 85/1967

June 5:
KMPV: 85/2021
KMSS: 88/1974


Current Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 5:
KPBG: 65/1963

June 6:
KPBG: 67/1973


Current Record Precipitation:

June 6:
KMSS: 1.09/1953

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Kutikoff
NEAR TERM...Kutikoff
SHORT TERM...Myskowski
LONG TERM...Myskowski
AVIATION...Kutikoff
CLIMATE...Kutikoff