752
FXUS65 KBYZ 242047
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Billings MT
247 PM MDT Fri May 24 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Today through Saturday night...

Today will be mostly dry, though a few showers can`t be ruled out.
Precipitation chances are generally less than 20% for locations
north of Billings with single digit chances to the south. Due to
CAPE values remaining <500J/kg and shear generally <20-25 kts,
severe weather is not expected. PWAT values may get into the
0.7-0.8 range hinting that a brief moderate rain will be possible
with these showers. Precipitation amounts are expected to remain
light with a <20% chance for 0.10 inches across the area.
Tomorrow afternoon there will be a wave coming through to our
north that will bring more substantial precipitation to the
region. A low pressure system to our north will bring a weak cold
front across the region bringing 50-70% precipitation chances. The
environment will be similar to today with CAPE values <500J/kg,
shear values <25 kts, and PWATS of 0.7-0.8. This will be enough to
produce some scattered general thunderstorms across the region.
Locations west of a line from Sheridan to Miles City will have a
30-50% chance of >0.25 inches of precipitation while locations to
the east will have a 20-30% chance. Temperatures will be in the
60s today before temperatures warm into the mid 60s to low 70s
tomorrow. With a moist surface due to all the rain we have
received recently, there is the potential for fog to develope
tomorrow morning. Looking at soundings it appears any fog
potential would be before 7AM as surface heating picks up quickly.
Torgerson


Sunday through Friday...

Weak upper trough will be exiting the forecast area on Sunday.
Strong mixing down of W to NW winds will create a breezy day. Best
precipitation chances will be E and S of KBIL at 50-60%. There was
around a 20% chance of at least a quarter of an inch /0.25/ of
precipitation E and S of KBIL. There will be some CAPE in the far
E but no shear. Temps will be a little below normal in the 60s.
Dry weather will then be over the area through Tuesday night as an
upper ridge moves over the region. It will be warm with highs on
Monday in the 70s. Tuesday will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Temps will reach into the mid 80 E and S of KBIL on Wednesday
when the ridge shifts E, and SW flow moves into the region. There
was a 60-90% chance of temps reaching 80 degrees Tuesday and
Wednesday. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase
from KBIL W Wed. afternoon (40-60%). Issued an ESF for the warm
weather, which could create snow melt in the foothills and
mountains, causing waterways to run high. Keep an eye on the
forecast in case there are flooding concerns.

Uncertainty in the forecast increases for Thursday and Friday, due
to various depictions of the trough that will affect the area on
Thursday, and poor ensemble agreement for Friday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms were in the forecast for both days, with
cooler temperatures. No fire concerns through the period. Arthur

&&

.AVIATION...

This afternoon and evening there could (20-30%) be some showers
and possibly a few thunderstorms north of Billings. More
significant precipitation will work its way into the region
tomorrow afternoon around 21Z into the overnight. There will be
thunderstorms associated with this as well as it moves across the
area from west to east. This will likely lead to mountain
obscurations. There is potential for fog tomorrow morning with the
best chances being for KBHK and KMLS. Torgerson

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Sat     Sun     Mon     Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 042/068 047/066 044/073 047/080 053/082 052/072 048/068
    04/T    74/W    00/U    00/U    14/T    43/T    32/T
LVM 038/064 041/062 039/070 043/079 050/078 047/067 041/066
    17/T    83/W    00/U    01/U    16/T    44/T    33/T
HDN 040/070 046/066 042/072 045/081 051/085 051/073 046/069
    12/T    74/W    10/U    00/U    02/T    43/T    32/W
MLS 041/070 048/065 045/070 045/079 052/085 054/075 048/069
    11/U    54/W    10/U    00/U    01/U    41/B    32/W
4BQ 041/070 046/065 045/068 045/079 053/086 055/076 049/069
    01/U    44/W    10/U    00/U    01/U    31/U    31/B
BHK 038/070 043/064 042/068 042/076 049/081 052/076 047/069
    21/U    36/T    11/U    00/U    01/U    31/B    22/W
SHR 037/068 041/063 040/069 043/079 049/084 050/074 044/068
    02/T    65/T    10/U    00/U    02/T    32/T    32/T

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings