096
FXUS65 KBYZ 280322
AFDBYZ

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Billings MT
922 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

.DISCUSSION...

Through Tuesday night...

Mainly dry conditions can be expected through most of the short
term forecast as an upper ridge builds in from the west over the
region. A weak wave crossing through northeast MT/western ND this
afternoon and evening will bring an increase in cumulus from Miles
City to Baker, but convection should remain north and east of the
area. Temperatures will approach 80 degrees for many areas on
Tuesday as the ridge axis moves overhead. The warmer temperatures
will effectively start a more aggressive mountain snow melt
pattern, that will continue into Wednesday. Look for rising water
levels through Thursday.

As the ridge axis continues to shift east Tuesday evening,
southwest flow will advect moisture and energy into the region.
Isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms (15-30%) are possible
over the western mountains and foothills. STP

Wednesday through Monday...

The second half of the work week will remain unsettled, with the
best chance of precipitation coming Wednesday. Look for
temperatures to cool slightly below normal Thursday and Friday
(60s to 70F) before warming back above normal next weekend
(normal is around 70F).

Wednesday looks to be the wettest day of the extended period as a
trough and associated cold front push through the region. Ahead
of the front, temperatures will quickly warm into the 70s and 80s
with the warmest conditions existing in southeastern Montana and
northeastern Wyoming. Atmospheric moisture content will also be on
the rise Wednesday, priming the environment for precipitation,
and thunderstorms. By Wednesday morning, chances of precipitation
will already be increasing west of Billings (15-40% chance). By
Wednesday afternoon and evening, chances of precipitation will
peak and spread east (60-90% chance) as the cold front moves
through. The environment Wednesday will also be favorable for
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, especially in
eastern Montana (east of Billings). With these thunderstorms,
there is a marginal (2/5) risk for severe wind (58 mph or greater)
and hail (1 inch or greater), again east of Billings. Heavy rain
is also possible under the stronger storms. One thing to note,
these storms look to initiate over the plains, not over the
mountains. Therefore, we are not looking at a major rain on snow
issue.

Thursday and Friday will remain unsettled with cooler
temperatures and generally low chances of precipitation (40 to
less than a 15% chance). Thursday looks to also be a breezy day
with 25 to 40 mph wind gusts common, strongest over the western
foothills. The risk for stronger winds looks minimal over the west
with NBM probabilities remaining 30-45% for 40 mph or greater
winds.

The overall pattern for Saturday into Monday remains uncertain
but looks drier with only low chances of precipitation (mainly
Sunday at this time).

Additional note for those with interests on the waterways. Water
rises from snowmelt will continue Wendesday into Thursday. Cooler
temperatures Thursday and Friday will slow the melt and allow
water levels to stabilize or decrease. Arends
&&

.AVIATION...


High pressure aloft will bring widespread VFR tonight and Tuesday.
Beginning around 00z Tuesday evening, isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible along the western foothills including
near KLVM & KHWQ. JKL

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    Tue     Wed     Thu     Fri     Sat     Sun     Mon
-----------------------------------------------------------
BIL 046/080 053/077 046/064 043/068 045/073 050/079 055/082
    00/U    08/T    83/W    11/B    10/B    11/B    11/B
LVM 043/079 050/071 038/061 037/066 040/073 047/076 051/078
    00/U    29/T    73/T    11/B    10/B    12/T    11/B
HDN 044/081 051/079 046/065 043/070 043/076 048/081 052/084
    00/U    06/T    82/W    11/B    10/B    11/B    11/B
MLS 044/078 055/083 048/064 043/070 045/076 051/082 055/084
    00/U    03/T    71/B    11/B    10/U    11/B    11/B
4BQ 045/079 054/084 049/064 044/070 045/075 051/082 054/084
    00/U    03/T    81/B    21/B    10/U    11/B    10/B
BHK 041/075 049/080 046/063 041/070 043/074 048/080 052/081
    00/U    03/T    81/N    11/B    10/U    01/B    11/B
SHR 042/079 051/080 044/063 038/070 041/073 046/080 051/083
    00/U    05/T    83/T    11/U    11/B    11/B    11/B

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...None.
WY...None.

&&

$$
weather.gov/billings