567
FXUS62 KCAE 292341
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
741 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will build into the region this week keeping
skies mostly sunny and temperatures cooler than days past.
Moisture will increase over the Southeast this weekend resulting
in mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms Sunday into early
next week. Temperatures are expected to be at or slightly below
normal into the weekend then a warming early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A weak reinforcing cold front will move out of the central
Appalachians and move through the forecast area tonight.  This will
eventually turn surface winds from westerly to a more northerly
direction.  The front will come through dry as the airmass remains
dry enough to inhibit any rain chances. There may be enough high
clouds moving in from the west, and enough low-level mixing
associated with the front, to limit the radiational cooling
potential.  Even so, lows tonight will still be able to drop into
the upper 50s to lower 60s in most places.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough over the eastern US will promote dry NW
flow over the area through the short term. At the surface, high
pressure will move from the Midwest into the Mid-Atlantic states
ushering in dry air and cooler temperatures. Atmospheric
moisture through the short term will be below normal with PWAT
values from 0.5 to 0.75 inches. Highs on Thursday and Friday
will be in the low to mid 80s, a few degrees below normal.
Friday night should be the coolest night with surface high
pressure centered over the Mid- Atlantic states. Radiational
cooling under mostly clear skies should allow temperatures to
fall into the 50s for many areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Global ensembles are in general agreement for the long term
showing the axis of an upper level trough moving offshore this
weekend. This will allow surface high pressure to also move
offshore ushering in southerly flow and increasing moisture
beginning Saturday night or Sunday. PWAT values will rise back
to normal by Sunday morning with near or above normal values
(1.4 to 1.8) likely for the remainder of the long term. In
general, ensembles favor zonal flow or weak ridging for Sunday
through early next week. This setup typically favors shortwave
troughs periodically moving across the area. Overall, near or
above normal atmospheric moisture with shortwave activity favors
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms, generally in
the afternoon to evening. At this time, there appears to be no
prominent surface features or strong shortwaves that would
support widespread rainfall. With southerly flow developing late
this weekend and possible ridging early next week, temperatures
should rise to near or above normal for the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected through the 24 hr TAF period.

High pressure ridging over the area with some high clouds
passing over the terminals. With dry air remaining in the low
levels, no restrictions are expected through the TAF period. A
weak, reinforcing front will move through the area tonight with
winds shifting to more northerly tomorrow, although remaining
lighter, between 5 and 10 knots.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions not expected through
the end of the week. Low chance of restrictions this weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$