422
FXUS64 KCRP 270828
AFDCRP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
328 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Key Messages:

- Major to Extreme risk of heat related illness today.

- Low (20%) chance of thunderstorms today - some could be strong
  to severe.

Two phases to the forecast today, the first will be the continued
heat risk. Once again, expect heat index values at or above 115
for a good portion of the area for a period this afternoon.
Yesterday clouds kept temperatures down a bit, but expect fewer
clouds today, thus the continues excessive heat warning. Have
expanded the warning to a few more counties (Live Oak, Bee and
inland San Patricio). Will maintain the advisory for the rest of
the area (minus the islands). After today we`ll start getting
shortwaves through here that will lead to more cloud cover and
slightly cooler temperatures. This should knock the heat concern
back just a bit. Heat advisories will still be possible for
tomorrow, but excessive heat warnings look less likely.

The aforementioned shortwaves will play a role into the second
phase of our forecast today...the potential for a few
thunderstorms late this evening into the overnight. Confidence is
low on this occurring as we`ll still have a pretty stout warm
layer above the surface, but if surface temperatures/moisture
levels get high enough, we could break the cap. If that happens,
conditions are favorable for storms that would develop to get
strong to severe with cape values 3-4 J/KG and lapse rates of 7-8
C/Km. GFS has been very robust with convection the past few days,
but seems overdone with some convective feedback likely in play.
Other models are more reasonable, but still plenty of differences
among them. HRRR shows little convection getting crossing into
Texas while the FV3 has been showing considerably more. Thus
adding to the low confidence. Whatever the result, it bears
watching, especially in the Rio Grande Plains, mainly after 6pm
this evening.


&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Key Messages:

- Low chances (15-30%) of rain daily this week

Not much change from previous forecasts. Quasi-zonal flow aloft is
expected to dominate the long term before an upper-level ridge
begins to move in towards the last day of the extended forecast. A
series of shortwaves will traverse across the region throughout the
long term increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms.
PWAT values throughout the long term are expected to range from from
1.80-2.20" which ranks in the top 10 percent of climatology. Despite
the abundance of moisture, models are showing a strong cap in place
throughout the long term which would be the limiting factor in the
development of any showers and/or thunderstorms. Due to the
uncertainty, continued to go with the low end rain chances (15-30%)
that previous forecast have shown.

With the increase of cloud cover and possible precipitation
throughout the long term, daytime highs are expected to come down
from the absurd levels they have been at recently which will in turn
keep our heat indices generally under 112 degrees. Despite the more
normal temperatures and reduced heat indices, there is still a
medium to high chance for a moderate to major risk of heat-related
impacts with a low to medium chance of an extreme risk across the
Coastal Plains and northern Brush Country due to the anticipated
poor overnight recoveries.

As we continue with these elevated risk of heat-related impacts,
please be sure to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take frequent
breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities, wear loose
and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat stroke and
heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before locking it.
Remember your pets too during this warm spell by bringing them
inside and providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally,
check local media and government websites for cooling center
locations and hours.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024

MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected in the eastern TAF sites
overnight. The likely timing of arrival for IFR ceilings will be
around 08-10Z. Some patchy fog could develop and mix in with haze
and further drop visibilities during the morning. COT will be the
only western site expected to briefly drop to MVFR ceilings.
Ceilings should transition to VFR at all sites by 15-18Z. There is
a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in the area during the
later half of the period. This will be reassessed in future TAF
issuances.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through Wednesday night
before strengthening to moderate to strong levels Thursday. There
will be a low (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms each
day from Wednesday through the end of the work week, mainly across
the Gulf waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    97  79  94  80 /   0  10  10  10
Victoria          98  77  95  77 /   0  10  10  20
Laredo           107  80 103  78 /  10  20  20  30
Alice            102  78  98  78 /   0  10  10  20
Rockport          92  80  91  81 /   0   0  10  10
Cotulla          108  79 100  78 /  10  20  20  30
Kingsville        99  79  96  79 /   0  10  10  10
Navy Corpus       92  82  91  82 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ229>232-239>244.

     Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ233-234-245>247-
     342>344-346-347.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PH/83
LONG TERM....JCP/84
AVIATION...NP