Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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422 FXUS64 KCRP 270828 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 328 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Key Messages: - Major to Extreme risk of heat related illness today. - Low (20%) chance of thunderstorms today - some could be strong to severe. Two phases to the forecast today, the first will be the continued heat risk. Once again, expect heat index values at or above 115 for a good portion of the area for a period this afternoon. Yesterday clouds kept temperatures down a bit, but expect fewer clouds today, thus the continues excessive heat warning. Have expanded the warning to a few more counties (Live Oak, Bee and inland San Patricio). Will maintain the advisory for the rest of the area (minus the islands). After today we`ll start getting shortwaves through here that will lead to more cloud cover and slightly cooler temperatures. This should knock the heat concern back just a bit. Heat advisories will still be possible for tomorrow, but excessive heat warnings look less likely. The aforementioned shortwaves will play a role into the second phase of our forecast today...the potential for a few thunderstorms late this evening into the overnight. Confidence is low on this occurring as we`ll still have a pretty stout warm layer above the surface, but if surface temperatures/moisture levels get high enough, we could break the cap. If that happens, conditions are favorable for storms that would develop to get strong to severe with cape values 3-4 J/KG and lapse rates of 7-8 C/Km. GFS has been very robust with convection the past few days, but seems overdone with some convective feedback likely in play. Other models are more reasonable, but still plenty of differences among them. HRRR shows little convection getting crossing into Texas while the FV3 has been showing considerably more. Thus adding to the low confidence. Whatever the result, it bears watching, especially in the Rio Grande Plains, mainly after 6pm this evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Key Messages: - Low chances (15-30%) of rain daily this week Not much change from previous forecasts. Quasi-zonal flow aloft is expected to dominate the long term before an upper-level ridge begins to move in towards the last day of the extended forecast. A series of shortwaves will traverse across the region throughout the long term increasing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms. PWAT values throughout the long term are expected to range from from 1.80-2.20" which ranks in the top 10 percent of climatology. Despite the abundance of moisture, models are showing a strong cap in place throughout the long term which would be the limiting factor in the development of any showers and/or thunderstorms. Due to the uncertainty, continued to go with the low end rain chances (15-30%) that previous forecast have shown. With the increase of cloud cover and possible precipitation throughout the long term, daytime highs are expected to come down from the absurd levels they have been at recently which will in turn keep our heat indices generally under 112 degrees. Despite the more normal temperatures and reduced heat indices, there is still a medium to high chance for a moderate to major risk of heat-related impacts with a low to medium chance of an extreme risk across the Coastal Plains and northern Brush Country due to the anticipated poor overnight recoveries. As we continue with these elevated risk of heat-related impacts, please be sure to practice heat safety. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks from the sun, avoid strenuous outdoor activities, wear loose and lightweight clothing, recognize the signs of heat stroke and heat exhaustion, and ALWAYS check your vehicle before locking it. Remember your pets too during this warm spell by bringing them inside and providing plenty of water and shelter. Additionally, check local media and government websites for cooling center locations and hours. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1044 PM CDT Sun May 26 2024 MVFR to IFR ceilings are expected in the eastern TAF sites overnight. The likely timing of arrival for IFR ceilings will be around 08-10Z. Some patchy fog could develop and mix in with haze and further drop visibilities during the morning. COT will be the only western site expected to briefly drop to MVFR ceilings. Ceilings should transition to VFR at all sites by 15-18Z. There is a low chance for showers and thunderstorms in the area during the later half of the period. This will be reassessed in future TAF issuances. && .MARINE... Issued at 247 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024 Weak to moderate onshore flow is expected through Wednesday night before strengthening to moderate to strong levels Thursday. There will be a low (15-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms each day from Wednesday through the end of the work week, mainly across the Gulf waters. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 97 79 94 80 / 0 10 10 10 Victoria 98 77 95 77 / 0 10 10 20 Laredo 107 80 103 78 / 10 20 20 30 Alice 102 78 98 78 / 0 10 10 20 Rockport 92 80 91 81 / 0 0 10 10 Cotulla 108 79 100 78 / 10 20 20 30 Kingsville 99 79 96 79 / 0 10 10 10 Navy Corpus 92 82 91 82 / 0 10 10 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229>232-239>244. Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ233-234-245>247- 342>344-346-347. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...PH/83 LONG TERM....JCP/84 AVIATION...NP