Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
356 FNUS28 KWNS 182049 FWDD38 Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0347 PM CDT Sat May 18 2024 Valid 201200Z - 261200Z A persistent mean mid/upper-level trough is forecast across the western United States from Day 3/Monday through at least Day 8/Saturday. This will promote a multi-day period of enhanced mid-level west to southwesterly flow across the Southwest and a prolonged period of dry/breezy surface conditions. While the latest fuel guidance suggests fuels across much of this region are only marginal receptive, owing in part to recent precipitation, several days of additional curing over the next few days and into next week will likely allow fuels to become critically dry. ...Day 3/Monday... Meteorologically, fire weather conditions may peak on Day 3/Monday as a strong mid-level jet overspreads the Southwest. Widespread critical RH values are expected with strong/gusty surface winds. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible across a rather broad area, primary uncertainty remains the impact of recent rainfall on fuels across portions of central/eastern New Mexico and the general state of fuels across Arizona. Have introduced 70% probabilities for Critical Fire weather conditions where confidence in critical conditions is greatest owing to less recent rainfall. The Critical area may need to be refined/expanded as fuel guidance is updated. Additionally, while a few isolated dry thunderstorms are possible (mainly across portions of Arizona), confidence is currently too low to introduce probabilities. ...Day 4/Tuesday... Mid-level flow will shift eastward into the Plains by Day 4/Tuesday with the rear portion of the enhanced mid-level flow remaining over portions of New Mexico and Arizona. Near critical fire weather conditions appear likely, as dry air and breezy surface winds overlap increasingly dry fuels. While Critical fire weather conditions are possible, uncertainty regarding fuel recovery after recent rainfall across much of central New Mexico precludes increasing the critical probabilities. ...Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday... Fire weather conditions may decrease some on Day 5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as the stronger mid-level flow moves out of the Southwest. Nevertheless, continued enhanced mid-level flow will promote Elevated to locally Critical fire weather conditions each day across portions of Arizona and New Mexico. ...Day 7/Friday - Day 8/Saturday... While exact details remain unclear this far in advance, ensemble guidance suggests that mid-level flow will strengthen again late this week and into next weekend across portions of the Southwest. This may lead to another prolonged period of Critical fire weather conditions over a broad area, especially as several days of dry/breezy conditions and no appreciable rainfall will likely lead to widespread Critically receptive fuels by then. ..Elliott.. 05/18/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product... $$