Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
982 FXXX12 KWNP 310031 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 31 0030 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached moderate levels, with an M1.0 flare at 30/0713 UTC from Region 3691 (N27W06, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta). Region 3691 appeared to be in decay. Slight decay was observed in Region 3697s(S18E49, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) trailing spots, while the leader spots appeared to show growth and separation. Newly formed Region 3698 (N22E36, Cso/beta) was numbered during the period, but remained quiet and inactive. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in available coronagraph imagery. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels through 02 Jun, with occasional M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) and a chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3 Strong). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 02 Jun. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 02 Jun, primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 3691 and 3697. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Total field decreased from 11 nT to near 3 nT. The Bz component ranged from +7 nT to -6 nT, though it was mostly negative the latter half of the period. Solar wind speed ranged from 315 km/s to 383 km/s. Phi angle was positive through the last synoptic period when it moved into a negative position. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to continue near ambient-like levels through 31 May. While the bulk of the material from the 29 May CME is expected to miss behind Earths orbit, influences from the CMEs flanking edge are likely to cause enhancements in the solar wind by late 31 May and continue into 01 Jun. A return to a nominal solar wind is expected on 02 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely to commence by late 31 May and continue into 01 Jun due to flanking CME effects from the aforementioned X1.4 flare and subsequent CME eruption of 29 May. Quiet to unsettled levels are expected on 02 June.