Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
990 FXXX12 KWNP 281231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 28 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity decreased to low levels. Multiple C-class flares were observed from Regions 3691 (N25E28, Ekc/beta-gamma-delta) and 3697 (S19E79, Dao/beta). The largest was a C8.9/Sf at 27/1916 UTC from Region 3961. Region 3961 exhibited slight growth and possible separation of its leader spots. Slight growth was also observed in Region 3693 (N04E15, Dao/beta). Newly numbered Region 3967 was too close to the limb for an accurate determination of spot class. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during the summary period. .Forecast... Solar activity will likely continue at moderate to high levels with occasional M-class flares (R1-2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) and a chance for isolated X-class flares (R3/Strong Radio Blackouts) through 30 May. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 30 May. There is a slight chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold on 28-30 May due to the flare potential of Regions 3691 and 3697. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were at or near nominal levels. Solar wind speed ranged from 331-389 km/s. Total field ranged from 1-7 nT while the Bz component was between +5/-4 nT. Phi angle was variable. .Forecast... Solar wind parameters are likely to continue to be at or near nominal levels through the rest of 28 May. An additional enhancement due to indirect shock arrival from the 27 May X2.8 flare event may arrive by late 29 May. The solar wind environment is expected to return to ambient-like levels over the course of 30 May. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels. .Forecast... The geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet through 28 May. Isolated active levels, with a chance for a G1 (Minor) storming, are expected with any shock arrival from the 27 May CME. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 30 May as any lingering shock effects wane.