Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
083 FXXX12 KWNP 301231 DAYDIS :Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 May 30 1230 UTC # Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Product description and SWPC contact on the Web # http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html # # Forecast Discussion # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity reached high levels. Region 3697 (S18E56, Eki/beta-gamma-delta) produced a long-duration X1.4/2b flare at 29/1437 UTC. This event was accompanied by Type II (878 km/s) and Type IV radio sweeps, and a 300 sfu tenflare. An associated partial halo CME was observed off the E limb at 29/1436 UTC in SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery. Modeling of this event suggests a partially Earth-directed component that will likely arrive by late 31 May. Slight decay was observed in the trailing spots of Region 3697 while the leader spots appeared to show growth and separation. Multiple M-class flares were observed from Region 3691 (N27E01, Dkc/beta-gamma-delta). The largest was a M5.7 flare at 29/1841 UTC. Region 3691 appeared to be in decay. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to continue at moderate to high levels through 01 Jun, with occasional M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate Radio Blackouts) and a chance for isolated X-class flare activity (R3 Strong). Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal to moderate and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background values. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain at normal to moderate levels through 01 Jun. There is a chance for a greater than 10 MeV proton event exceeding the S1 (Minor) threshold through 01 Jun primarily due to the flare potential of Regions 3691 and 3697. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Total field decreased from 11 nT to near 3 nT. The Bz component ranged from +7 nT to -6 nT. Solar wind speed ranged from 315 km/s to 383 km/s. Phi angle was positive. .Forecast... The solar wind environment is expected to continue near ambient-like levels over the course of 30 May and remain there through 31 May. While the bulk of the material from the 29 May CME is expected to miss behind Earths orbit, influences from the CMEs flanking edge are likely to cause enhancements in the solar wind by late 31 May and continue into 01 Jun. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at quiet levels. .Forecast... Mostly quiet conditions are expected through the rest of 30 May. G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) geomagnetic storming is likely to commence by late 31 May and continue into 01 Jun due to flanking CME effects from the aforementioned X1.4 flare and subsequent CME eruption of 29 May.