683
FXUS63 KDLH 271107
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
607 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of dense fog this morning will disperse by late morning.

- Rain showers enter from the west today with some isolated thunderstorms
  possible (20-30%). No severe weather is anticipated.

- Additional showers and a few thunderstorms possible tomorrow
  (20- 40%).

- Quiet weather for Wednesday and Thursday with frost possible
  both mornings. Best chances will be across northern MN for Wed
  morning and NW WI for Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Current conditions:

Satellite this morning is picking up on some fog development along
the South Shore and into the lower basin south of Superior. A few
sensors across the region are also reporting some intermittent
reductions in visibilities. Not nearly as widespread as models had
suggested over the past several runs with the recent runs now vastly
backing off the coverage. Based off current trends we have
trimmed the Dense Fog Advisory a bit. Some patchy fog can still
be expected across the region as dewpoint depressions are
largely within 1 degree and winds remain light. Any fog that
does manage to develop over the next few hours will not linger
long through the morning.

Today:

Radar shows and expansive line of precipitation advancing across
western MN this morning propelled by and upper level trough
digging across the Northern Plains. Rain will enter the Brainerd
Lake region after sunrise and spread east through the day.
PWATs remain less then an 1" which is to be expected as we lack
a strong moisture connection with this system. This will lead to
scattered rain showers producing less then a quarter inch of
rain. The exception will be any location that manages to see an
isolated thunderstorm roll over. Instability does increase a bit
in the afternoon but lack of shear to work with will lead to
storms quickly collapsing on themselves. No severe weather is
anticipated at this time.

Tuesday:

Tuesday will see an upper level low diving southeast out of Ontario
and through the Northland. Cyclonic turning aloft infused with
low and mid level moisture will lead to a vast cumulus field
enveloping the region. Scattered to numerous amounts of showers
will envelop the Northland. Instability and shear are similar
to the previous day with enough for some rumbles of thunder but
overall short-lived.

Mid Week Frost:

High pressure builds in for Wednesday allowing for a break in the
repetitive precipitation patterns. However, this will lead to
some frost concerns as this air mass ushers in some cooler
temperatures. Frost Advisories may be needed Wed morning across
northern MN and again Thursday morning for NW WI.

Extended Forecast:

Active weather is expected to return towards the end of the week as
the upper level ridge weakens and is pushed out of the region from a
deepening trough across the northern Rockies. Timing still remains
in flux as escorting the dry air that will be in place seems to be
causing ensembles some difficulties. Based on cluster analysis
we can expect the next active pattern to persist into early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 607 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Patchy fog impacting a few terminals this morning. This fog will not
stick around long, dispersing a few hours after forecast issuance.
Rain showers are entering from the west and will spread east through
the day. Thunderstorm potential increases this afternoon with BRD
having the highest chances (30%) of seeing thunderstorms. No severe
weather is expected.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Mon May 27 2024

Light winds today with minimal wave action. The main problem for
today is the potential for dense fog. Models have not been doing
great with handling this feature with satellite currently
showing some between Two Harbors and Port Wing. Current
expectation is for this fog to expand through the morning hours
with the dense fog advisory likely needing to be extended beyond
8am. This fog will then transition east through the day and out
of western Lake Superior by early evening.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for MNZ019-037.
WI...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for WIZ001>003.
MARINE...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for LSZ121-
     143>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Britt
AVIATION...Britt
MARINE...Britt