Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
Issued by NWS Duluth, MN
960
FNUS73 KDLH 301106
FWSDLH
Spot Forecast for NWS Block J...USFS
National Weather Service Duluth MN
606 AM CDT Thu May 30 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 30.
If there are questions or concerns with this forecast, or if
conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National
Weather Service in Duluth at 218-729-0653.
.DISCUSSION...
Starting out with sunny skies, though increasing high clouds
arrive starting later this morning into afternoon. No
precipitation expected today, though scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorm chances do move in tonight into Friday
morning, with a brief break in rain before a second round of
lighter rain moves through later on Friday into early Saturday.
Rainfall amounts from tonight through early Saturday are forecast
to be around 0.25 inches.
Light south winds at ignition time will increase to around 10 mph
late this morning into tonight, with gust of 15 to 20 mph. Mixing
heights rise to 5000-6000 ft late this morning and afternoon with
min RH dipping to around 35 percent. Poor smoke dispersal around
ignition time quickly ramps up to excellent late morning into
afternoon.
Ongoing rain and increased moisture will keep RH much
higher on Friday, with min RH of 55-60%. Winds veer to the
southwest on Friday, turning slightly lighter with winds of 7-10
mph and gusts to around 15 mph. Mixing heights remain at or below
1000 ft until early afternoon when they increase to 2000-3000 ft
and top out around 3500 ft late in the afternoon. Poor to fair smoke
dispersal increases to fair to good by late Friday afternoon.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 73.
Min humidity........35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 6 to 10 mph.
Mixing height.......1200 ft AGL increasing to 5800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4000-12400 knot-ft) increasing to
excellent (69100-89800 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
TIME (CDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR PC
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............48 55 64 67 69 70 72 72 71 71
RH..............64 59 51 43 40 37 35 35 36 38
20 FT wind dir..SE S S S S S S S S S
20 FT wind spd..6 6 7 8 8 9 10 10 10 10
20 FT wind gust.9 11 13 14 14 15 16 16 16 16
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 1.2 3.3 4.9 5.3 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.3 5.2
Transp wind dir.S S S S S S S S S S
Transp wind spd.9 12 14 16 17 17 17 18 18 18
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/10004 12 39 69 80 85 87 90 85 84
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) then becoming
mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Slight chance of
rain showers overnight. Chance of rain showers
overnight, then rain showers likely and slight
chance of thunderstorms after 3 am.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................1 until 0400, then 2.
Min temperature.....Around 54.
Max humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 7 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected
near thunderstorms after 3 am.
Mixing height.......4200 ft AGL decreasing to 1200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (62400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor to
fair (6000-15300 knot-ft).
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.03 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky cover.......PCLDY PCLDY PCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
Weather cov..... CHANCE LIKELY
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 10 30 60
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 2
Temp............70 66 61 60 59 58
RH..............41 49 60 60 62 69
20 ft wind......S 9 S 7 S 7 S 8 S 10 S 10
20 ft wind gust.15 14 14 16 19 19
Mix hgt (ft)....4200 700 600 600 600 700
Transport wind..S 17 S 14 S 13 S 16 S 17 S 16
Haines index....4 4 4 4 3 3
SDspl kt-ft/100062 8 7 8 9 9
.FRIDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Rain showers
likely in the morning. Slight chance of
thunderstorms through the day. Chance of rain
showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent.
LAL.................2 until 1000, then 1 until 1300, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6 to 9 mph. Gusts up to 22 mph
early in the morning. Gusty and erratic winds
expected near thunderstorms early in the
morning. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2300 ft AGL increasing to 3600 ft AGL late in
the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 18 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor to fair (9300-28800 knot-ft) increasing to
fair to good (28900-40100 knot-ft) late in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 4 or very low to low potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.04 inches.
TIME (CDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky cover.......MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY MCLDY
Weather cov.....LIKELY CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC S CHC S CHC S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).60 50 40 40 30 20
LAL.............2 2 1 1 2 2
Temp............57 58 60 64 68 69
RH..............75 80 81 70 59 57
20 ft wind......S 9 S 9 SW 8 SW 8 SW 8 SW 7
20 ft wind gust.20 18 14 13 13 12
Mix hgt (ft)....600 1000 900 1900 2800 3600
Transport wind..S 18 SW 15 SW 13 SW 12 SW 12 SW 13
Haines index....3 4 4 4 4 4
SDspl kt-ft/10009 13 10 19 29 40
$$
Forecaster...Cory
Requested by...Andrew Nelson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415332.0/DLH
.DELDT 05/30/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ryan.mulhern@usda.gov,andrew.l.nelson@usda.gov