176
FNUS73 KDTX 241137
FWSDTX

Spot Forecast for Lawrance Prairie Rx...MIDNR
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
737 AM EDT Fri May 24 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1200 EDT on May 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...High pressure hold across the region today.
Temperatures will rise from around 50 this morning into the low 80s
in the afternoon which helps humidity drop down to around 30 percent
on light SE wind. Rain showers become likely tonight with a chance
of thunderstorms into Saturday morning. Dry weather Saturday
afternoon continues into early Sunday until the next round of
showers and unsettled weather arrives later Sunday through Monday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (15-25 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 83.
Min humidity........34 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 6 to 7 mph.
Mixing height.......6800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Excellent (MAX...706).

TIME (EDT)      12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
SKY (%).........10  13  13  21  25  30
WEATHER COV.....
WEATHER TYPE....
TEMP............78  79  81  81  83  83
RH..............37  35  34  35  34  34
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  SE
EYE LVL WND SPD.6   6   6   6   7   7
EYE LVL WND GST.8   10  10  10  10  10
MIX HGT (KFT)...4.8 5.6 6.2 6.4 6.8 6.8
HAINES INDEX....5   5   5   5   5   5
SMOKE DISPER....430 564 687 699 745 813

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent)becoming mostly
                    cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of showers early
                    in the evening. Slight chance of thunderstorms
                    late in the evening, then showers likely and
                    chance of thunderstorms overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 62.
Max humidity........100 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 6 to 7 mph...becoming south
                    around 6 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 13 to 14 mph.
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Poor (MIN...42).

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
SKY (%).........31     37     48     63     80     76
WEATHER COV.....       CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY LIKELY
WEATHER TYPE....NONE   RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
TEMP............82     77     69     64     63     62
RH..............36     45     58     69     80     93
EYE LVL WND DIR.SE     SE     SE     SE     S      S
EYE LVL WND SPD.7      7      6      6      6      6
EYE LVL WND GST.10     11     11     11     11     12
MIX HGT (KFT)...6200   500    500    500    400    500
HAINES INDEX....5      4      4      4      3      3
SMOKE DISPER....746    55     58     55     49     58

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (35-45 percent). Showers likely
                    and chance of thunderstorms in the morning,
                    then slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 78.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 6 to 7 mph...becoming west 8 to
                    10 mph late in the morning.
Mixing height.......4400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 14 mph...becoming 13 to 15 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Haines Index........3 to 5 OR low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke Dispersal....Good (MAX...439).

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
SKY (%).........71        66        39        13
WEATHER COV.....LIKELY    CHANCE    S CHC
WEATHER TYPE....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    NONE
TEMP............62        67        73        78
RH..............98        89        67        48
EYE LEVEL WIND..SW 6      SW 7      W 8       W 10
EYE LEVEL WIND..12        13        14        17
MIX HGT (FT)....600       1600      3300      4100
HAINES INDEX....3         4         4         5
SMOKE DISPER....74        202       426       482

$$
Forecaster...Arnold
Requested by...Jeff Vasher
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2415022.0/DTX
.DELDT 05/24/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL vasherj@michigan.gov