Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Issued by NWS Quad Cities, IA IL
Versions:
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IAC011-019-031-045-055-057-061-087-095-097-101-103-105-107-111-113-
115-139-163-177-183-ILC011-015-067-071-073-085-109-131-155-161-177-
187-195-MOC045-199-151800-
Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
648 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024
...Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service Probabilistic Outlook...
This outlook provides long-range probabilistic river outlooks for
river basins in the NWS Quad Cities service area. This outlook is
divided into three parts, the first part for the probabilities of
minor, moderate and major flooding, the second part for high water
and the final part for low water.
In Table 1 below, the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor, moderate and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is greater than HS, the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS
is less than HS, the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 05/27/2024 - 08/25/2024
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Mississippi River
Dubuque LD11 16.0 17.0 20.5 : 17 12 10 9 <5 <5
Dubuque 17.0 18.0 21.5 : 24 14 16 12 <5 <5
Bellevue LD12 17.0 18.0 20.0 : 10 10 7 5 <5 <5
Fulton LD13 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 24 17 9 8 6 <5
Camanche 17.0 18.5 20.5 : 20 13 9 8 6 <5
Le Claire LD14 11.0 12.0 13.5 : 22 17 11 10 8 6
Rock Island LD15 15.0 16.0 18.0 : 42 25 30 19 11 8
Ill. City LD16 15.0 16.0 18.0 : 39 23 23 16 11 10
Muscatine 16.0 18.0 20.0 : 42 26 23 16 11 10
New Boston LD17 15.0 16.5 18.5 : 47 31 31 20 12 11
Keithsburg 14.0 15.5 17.0 : 54 32 28 18 13 10
Gladstone LD18 10.0 12.0 14.0 : 57 31 26 17 10 9
Burlington 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 54 28 26 17 14 10
Keokuk LD19 16.0 17.5 19.0 : 18 12 12 9 6 8
Gregory Landing 15.0 18.0 25.0 : 65 38 26 13 <5 <5
:Maquoketa River
Manchester Hwy 20 14.0 17.0 20.0 : 32 27 21 20 7 7
Maquoketa 24.0 26.0 28.5 : 18 14 8 8 6 6
:Wapsipinicon River
Independence 12.0 13.0 15.0 : 12 13 7 8 6 5
Anamosa Shaw Rd 14.5 18.0 21.5 : 34 22 11 10 <5 <5
De Witt 4S 11.0 11.5 12.5 : >95 69 78 60 56 39
:North Skunk River
Sigourney 16.0 18.0 21.0 : 57 40 40 30 18 13
:Skunk River
Augusta 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 54 35 36 24 21 16
:Cedar River
Vinton 15.0 18.0 19.0 : 20 19 <5 6 <5 <5
Palo Blairs Ferry 12.5 15.5 17.0 : 24 20 <5 7 <5 <5
Cedar Rapids 12.0 14.0 16.0 : 28 23 18 17 11 9
Cedar Bluff 16.0 20.0 26.0 : 24 21 8 9 <5 <5
Conesville 13.0 15.0 16.5 : 61 39 18 17 <5 6
:Iowa River
Marengo 15.0 17.0 19.0 : 88 55 54 43 20 16
Iowa City 23.5 24.5 26.0 : 7 5 6 5 <5 <5
Lone Tree 16.0 18.5 22.0 : 43 27 11 11 <5 <5
Columbus Jct 23.0 25.0 26.5 : 12 11 6 7 <5 <5
Wapello 21.0 25.0 27.5 : 46 25 7 9 <5 <5
Oakville 11.0 15.0 20.0 : 38 22 6 8 <5 <5
:English River
Kalona 14.0 16.0 18.0 : 54 43 34 28 16 12
:Des Moines River
Keosauqua 22.0 25.0 27.0 : 21 16 9 8 9 6
St Francisville 18.0 22.0 25.0 : 41 28 19 11 8 5
:Fox River
Wayland 15.0 18.0 20.0 : 34 27 17 16 5 <5
:Pecatonica River
Freeport 13.0 14.0 16.0 : 33 27 23 15 <5 <5
:Rock River
Como 12.5 15.5 18.0 : 28 22 12 9 <5 <5
Joslin 12.0 14.0 16.5 : 54 40 34 28 25 18
Moline 12.0 13.0 14.0 : 51 37 36 25 28 22
:Green River
Geneseo 15.0 16.5 18.0 : 20 14 7 6 <5 <5
:La Moine River
Colmar 20.0 22.0 24.0 : 63 49 42 30 20 18
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 05/27/2024 - 08/25/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Dubuque LD11 10.3 10.4 10.7 12.3 15.1 16.9 19.0
Dubuque 12.2 12.2 12.5 14.2 17.0 18.7 20.7
Bellevue LD12 11.0 11.1 11.3 13.0 15.2 17.1 18.5
Fulton LD13 10.7 10.7 11.1 13.2 15.6 17.7 20.1
Camanche 12.4 12.4 12.6 14.0 16.2 18.2 20.6
Le Claire LD14 8.1 8.1 8.4 9.7 10.7 12.5 14.4
Rock Island LD15 11.0 11.1 11.6 14.1 16.2 18.1 20.5
Ill. City LD16 10.3 10.3 11.2 13.5 15.8 18.4 21.4
Muscatine 11.8 11.9 12.7 15.1 17.7 20.3 23.0
New Boston LD17 12.0 12.0 12.7 14.7 16.9 19.6 21.9
Keithsburg 12.2 12.2 12.6 14.3 15.8 17.6 20.0
Gladstone LD18 8.4 8.4 8.7 10.5 12.2 14.2 16.9
Burlington 13.4 13.4 13.7 15.3 16.6 18.6 21.2
Keokuk LD19 10.8 10.8 11.2 13.0 14.7 17.8 20.5
Gregory Landing 13.7 13.7 14.3 16.0 18.1 20.8 23.4
:Maquoketa River
Manchester Hwy 20 5.3 6.4 7.6 10.5 15.0 18.8 21.6
Maquoketa 12.3 13.0 14.6 17.9 20.8 25.4 29.8
:Wapsipinicon River
Independence 6.9 6.9 7.6 9.0 10.5 12.3 15.5
Anamosa Shaw Rd 9.8 9.8 10.4 13.2 15.8 18.7 20.5
De Witt 4S 11.0 11.0 11.7 12.8 13.3 13.8 14.1
:North Skunk River
Sigourney 10.1 10.7 14.8 16.5 20.2 23.2 24.9
:Skunk River
Augusta 11.2 11.2 11.8 15.8 18.7 23.4 25.1
:Cedar River
Vinton 7.3 8.1 9.4 12.3 14.2 17.0 17.6
Palo Blairs Ferry 7.4 7.7 8.8 11.1 12.4 14.7 15.2
Cedar Rapids 6.4 6.6 7.6 10.2 12.4 16.3 17.2
Cedar Bluff 9.8 10.0 10.9 13.7 15.8 19.6 20.7
Conesville 11.4 11.5 11.7 13.5 14.3 15.9 16.4
:Iowa River
Marengo 14.2 14.8 16.1 17.4 18.3 19.3 20.2
Iowa City 16.8 16.8 17.6 19.1 19.9 22.4 25.5
Lone Tree 12.2 12.3 13.3 15.3 17.3 18.8 20.0
Columbus Jct 17.1 17.1 17.6 19.4 21.4 23.8 25.6
Wapello 19.0 19.0 19.4 20.7 22.4 24.2 26.2
Oakville 8.6 8.6 8.8 10.2 11.7 13.4 15.7
:English River
Kalona 7.3 8.2 11.2 14.4 16.7 19.6 20.9
:Des Moines River
Keosauqua 16.3 16.5 17.1 18.5 21.0 24.4 28.7
St Francisville 14.5 14.8 15.5 17.4 20.1 24.0 26.3
:Fox River
Wayland 3.3 4.4 6.8 11.3 16.8 19.1 20.0
:Pecatonica River
Freeport 8.2 8.2 8.9 11.6 13.8 15.3 15.8
:Rock River
Como 6.1 6.5 7.1 9.3 13.5 15.9 17.5
Joslin 8.5 8.8 9.6 12.8 16.5 19.3 19.8
Moline 9.8 9.9 10.4 12.0 14.5 16.7 17.6
:Green River
Geneseo 4.8 5.3 7.1 10.7 14.1 16.2 17.0
:La Moine River
Colmar 8.4 10.3 15.9 21.7 23.6 25.1 26.3
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 05/27/2024 - 08/25/2024
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Mississippi River
Dubuque LD11 6.8 6.4 5.5 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.0
Dubuque 9.2 8.8 8.2 7.7 7.5 7.3 7.1
Bellevue LD12 7.7 7.1 5.5 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.4
Fulton LD13 7.5 6.8 5.2 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1
Camanche 10.2 9.7 9.2 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.7
Le Claire LD14 6.1 5.6 4.9 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.3
Rock Island LD15 7.9 6.7 5.7 4.9 4.5 4.3 3.9
Ill. City LD16 6.3 5.2 4.6 4.0 3.6 3.5 3.3
Muscatine 8.0 7.2 6.6 6.3 6.1 5.9 5.7
New Boston LD17 7.5 6.1 4.9 4.1 3.6 3.4 3.0
Keithsburg 8.8 7.7 6.5 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.3
Gladstone LD18 4.1 3.3 2.2 1.6 1.3 1.2 0.8
Burlington 10.2 9.4 8.4 8.1 7.8 7.7 7.4
Keokuk LD19 6.2 5.4 4.0 3.4 2.5 2.4 2.2
Gregory Landing 8.1 7.2 6.8 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.2
:Maquoketa River
Manchester Hwy 20 4.1 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7
Maquoketa 10.9 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.1 9.9
:Wapsipinicon River
Independence 5.2 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.6
Anamosa Shaw Rd 5.4 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.1
De Witt 4S 7.1 6.6 6.2 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.3
:North Skunk River
Sigourney 4.7 4.5 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.6
:Skunk River
Augusta 3.5 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.7
:Cedar River
Vinton 4.2 3.8 3.2 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.1
Palo Blairs Ferry 4.1 3.8 3.3 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2
Cedar Rapids 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4
Cedar Bluff 5.9 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1
Conesville 7.2 6.7 6.3 5.9 5.7 5.5 5.3
:Iowa River
Marengo 8.3 7.7 7.2 7.0 6.6 6.4 6.2
Iowa City 10.9 10.8 10.5 10.2 10.0 9.8 9.6
Lone Tree 6.8 6.3 5.7 5.4 5.1 4.8 4.6
Columbus Jct 11.6 10.8 10.2 9.8 9.4 9.2 9.0
Wapello 13.9 12.9 12.2 11.8 11.4 11.0 10.8
Oakville 3.9 3.0 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.5 1.3
:English River
Kalona 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9
:Des Moines River
Keosauqua 15.9 15.2 11.7 10.9 10.6 10.4 10.2
St Francisville 14.2 13.4 8.6 7.5 7.2 6.7 6.4
:Fox River
Wayland 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5
:Pecatonica River
Freeport 5.9 5.5 5.1 4.6 4.2 4.0 3.9
:Rock River
Como 4.3 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.2 3.0 3.0
Joslin 5.9 5.5 5.1 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.0
Moline 8.6 8.5 8.3 8.1 8.0 7.9 7.8
:Green River
Geneseo 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7
:La Moine River
Colmar 4.1 3.6 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.3
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data, including current conditions of the
river, soil moisture, snow cover, and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities, the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
Visit our web site at http://www.weather.gov/dvn for more weather and
water information.
The next outlook will be issued near the end of next month.
$$
GROSS