209
FXUS64 KEPZ 280851
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
251 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Dry, hot weather will continue with not much of any chance of rain
in sight. Persistent dry west to southwest flow aloft is the main
culprit for this weather. This will keep fire conditions elevated
but fortunately, other than afternoon breezes, there doesn`t
appear to be any windy days through this weekend. Temperatures
will remain well above normal and many lowland sites should see
their first triple digit high temperatures this week, especially
this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Current look at the weather features shows a low amplitude ridge
from the Big Bend area north over New Mexico slowly phasing in
with increasing amplified ridge over the northern Rockies into
Canada. This ridge will only slowly drift east, in it`s N-S
alignment over the Plains/central US by Wednesday. Thus dry
southwest flow aloft will continue through much of this week. At
the surface a back door cool front extends north-south over
eastern New Mexico and is slowly drifting west. Models, including
the HRRR, show this front nearing the Sac Mtns later this morning,
but then quickly eroding away from the west as west winds
increase this afternoon in response to a weak short wave moving
across the CWA. Temperatures will be on the hot side, with the Rio
Grande Valley from El Paso downstream possibly reaching 100-103.

Wednesday through Sunday...the only change aloft is the ridge
pushes off east Thursday and Friday as a large low over Canada
brings a trough across New Mexico. This won`t have much impact
other than dropping high temps a few degrees, but models do show
the dry-line pushing west toward our far eastern CWA margins
Friday. This line will tease us through the weekend but never
actually push into our area.

Looking beyond the forecast period...GFS/ECMWF both show sub-
tropical high building over much of the Desert Southwest, allowing
the dry-line intrusion into much of the CWA by next Wednesday and
Thursday. Lets hope this pans out to at least alleviate the
elevated fire conditions--if not actually bring some rain.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Mon May 27 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with skies SKC. Winds
will continue to decrease through the night becoming generally light
and VRB. Winds increase by the late morning to early afternoon
timeframe at 10-15 knots with gusts to 20-25 knots, generally out of
the SW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM MDT Tue May 28 2024

Fire conditions will remain at elevated to near-critical through
this weekend, as dry southwest flow aloft persists. We should
avoid the stronger winds, but expect each afternoon through Sunday
to see 15-25 mph winds with a few higher gusts. However min RHs
will remain very low, and even overnight recovery will be poor, as
max RHs only rise to about 20-35%. Winds across the fire zones
will remain mostly west/southwest through this weekend. Winds
around the Blue2 fire could briefly turn south/southeast later
this morning as a back door cool front approaches from the east,
but they would quickly snap back to southwest this afternoon.
Another wind shift from the east/southeast could occur late
tonight into Wednesday morning before quickly turning back to the
west Wednesday afternoon. The Blue2 fire could finally see some
relief toward mid week next week as dry-line (hopeful of models)
brings a more substantial humid east push in.

Min RHs: Lowlands 4-8% through Sunday. Mountains 8-13% through
Sunday. Vent rates very good-excellent through Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 100  67  98  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca            95  66  93  61 /  10  10  10   0
Las Cruces               97  59  95  59 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo               96  57  94  54 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft               77  40  73  41 /   0  10  10   0
Truth or Consequences    95  57  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City              87  49  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                   96  53  96  54 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg                94  53  93  55 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro       99  65  97  64 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City                99  55  97  58 /   0   0  10   0
Fort Hancock            102  58 100  59 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda               93  56  90  58 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  100  62  99  62 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa             97  59  95  58 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ           97  59  95  62 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range            96  49  94  51 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                    98  54  96  55 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                 98  59  97  61 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande                95  56  93  52 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                  87  44  83  45 /   0  10  10   0
Mescalero                89  42  85  44 /   0  10  10   0
Timberon                 87  39  83  43 /   0   0  10   0
Winston                  88  42  85  48 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro                94  52  93  55 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport                95  50  95  49 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts             88  40  86  45 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                   91  47  89  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                    91  38  90  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek               90  32  88  37 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                  91  52  89  52 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                   95  54  94  54 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                  95  54  94  55 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells           95  56  94  56 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale               90  54  88  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

FORECASTER...17-Hefner