Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
449
FNUS74 KEPZ 210256
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Moser Fire...LINCOLN NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
856 PM MDT Mon May 20 2024
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2100 MDT on May 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
...Elevated to near Critical Fire Weather Conditions Continue...
.DISCUSSION...
A deep westerly flow pattern will keep the region warm and dry,
despite the passage of a minor Pacific front tonight. Winds may
stay breezy and shift a bit more northerly overnight, but terrain
influences will limit that. Temperatures will be a bit cooler
tonight and Tuesday, helping with slightly better morning RH
recovery, and a bit higher minRH Tuesday, but still pretty low.
Winds will continue breezy to windy which will keep fire
conditions elevated. Warmer and drier for Wednesday, but winds
down a bit, although still breezy.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (20-30 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 45.
Max humidity........45 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 12 to 15 mph with gusts to around 31
mph.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 16 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1800 knot-ft).
TIME (MDT) 9 PM 11 PM 1 AM 3 AM 5 AM
Sky (%).........34 34 34 19 19
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1
Temp............56 52 49 47 45
RH..............24 28 34 40 45
20 ft wind......W 15 W 15 W 13 W 12 W 12
20 ft wind gust.31 31 25 24 24
Mix hgt (ft)....200 200 200 100 100
Transport wind..W 16 W 16 W 16 W 16 W 16
Haines index....6 4 2 2 2
Vrate kt-ft/1K..3 2 2 2 2
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
.TUESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....63-66.
Min humidity........16-18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 12 to 15 mph with gusts to around 33
mph.
Mixing height.......6000 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 27 to 32 mph.
Haines Index........2 to 5 or very low to moderate potential for
large plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (89000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (181500 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........8 8 3 1 1 2
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............45 51 57 61 65 66
RH..............45 34 27 21 18 16
20 ft wind......W 12 W 12 W 14 W 15 W 15 W 15
20 ft wind gust.25 25 28 30 30 33
Mix hgt (ft)....3000 3000 4200 4200 6000 6000
Transport wind..W 27 W 27 W 29 W 29 W 32 W 32
Haines index....2 2 2 3 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..89 89 109 109 182 182
Ventrate Cat....GOOD GOOD VYGD VYGD EXNT EXNT
.TUESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Clear (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 16 mph. Gusts up to 33 mph in
the evening.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 16 to 25 mph decreasing to around 14 mph
overnight.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (169800 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(1200 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
TIME (MDT) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........4 5 6 6
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1
Temp............62 52 48 45
RH..............18 25 27 29
20 FT wind......W 16G33 W 12G28 W 8G18 W 7G15
Mix hgt (ft)....6100 6100 200 100
Transport wind..W 25 W 25 W 16 W 14
Haines index....5 5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..170 170 2 1
Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....65-69.
Min humidity........9-12 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 14 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph
in the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......9200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 20 mph increasing to around 27 mph
late in the afternoon.
Haines Index........5 to 6 or moderate to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (64300 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to excellent (161800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to excellent (221100
knot-ft) late in the afternoon.
TIME (MDT) 6 AM 10 AM 2 PM
Sky (%).........6 4 3
Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1
Temp............43 57 67
RH..............30 17 11
20 FT wind......W 8G18 SW 10G22 SW 12G25
Mix hgt (ft)....4000 8300 9200
Transport wind..W 15 SW 20 W 27
Haines index....5 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..64 162 221
Ventrate Cat....GOOD EXNT EXNT
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.THURSDAY...
Clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. Southwest
winds around 11 mph.
.FRIDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 40s. Highs in the upper 60s. West
winds around 13 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Clear. Lows in the mid 40s. Highs in the mid 60s. Southwest winds
around 11 mph.
$$
Forecaster...BIRD
Requested by...Brian Anderson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2414795.0/EPZ
.DELDT 05/20/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL Brian.d.anderson@usda.gov