Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
923
FNUS74 KEPZ 190254
FWSEPZ
Spot Forecast for Slaughter Mesa RX, Chiminea Unit...GILA NATIONAL FOREST
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
854 PM MDT Sat May 18 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on May 19.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.
...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT MONDAY...
.DISCUSSION...
Fire weather conditions will trend to elevated on Sunday, to critical
for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will warm slightly. Dry air will
stay in place, with drier air moving in on stronger southwest winds.
Temperatures will be several degrees warmer than normal. Relative humidity
will be very low; near single-digit each afternoon and poor overnight
recoveries. Troughing develops to our west Sunday, and remains into early
week, to increase winds across the region. Breezy and gusty conditions
Sunday, then windy and gusty for Monday and Tuesday. Winds will be from
the west and southwest. Sustained winds in the 15-25 mph range tomorrow,
will increase to 20-30 mph on Monday. Gusts will range as high as 30 to 35
mph over exposed elevated terrain.
.SUNDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Becoming breezy in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....71-74.
Min humidity........11-14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 28 mph
in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......10500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 15 to 23 mph increasing to around 26 mph
late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (71900 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
(189800 knot-ft) in the late morning and
afternoon.
Haines Index........2 to 6 or very low to high potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............53 57 61 64 67 69 71 71 72 71
RH..............29 24 20 18 16 14 13 13 12 12
20 FT wind dir..SW W W W SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..5 8 8 8 11 11 11 12 12 12
20 FT wind gust.9 18 18 18 23 23 23 28 28 28
Mix hgt (kft)...4.2 4.2 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 11 11 11 11
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.15 15 23 23 23 23 26 26 26 26
Haines index....2 2 3 4 5 6 6 6 6 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..72 72 190 190 190 190 241 241 241 241
Ventrate Cat....GD GD EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL
.SUNDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....41-45.
Max humidity........32-35 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 12 mph with gusts to around 28
mph in the evening and overnight becoming
light.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 12 to 20 mph decreasing to around 10 mph
overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (185400 knot-ft) decreasing to poor
(800 knot-ft) in the late evening and
overnight.
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........7 7 7 9 9 9 12 12 12 19 19 19
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............68 64 58 55 52 50 48 47 46 44 43 42
RH..............12 14 17 19 23 25 27 28 29 32 32 33
20 FT wind dir..W W W W W W W W W SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..12 12 12 8 8 8 5 5 5 4 4 4
20 FT wind gust.28 28 28 22 22 22 12 12 12 10 10 10
Mix hgt (kft)...9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W W W W W
Transp wind spd.20 20 20 20 12 12 12 12 10 10 10 10
Haines index....6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..185 185 185 185 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Ventrate Cat....EXL EXL EXL EXL PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
.MONDAY...RED FLAG WARNING
Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Becoming windy.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....71-72.
Min humidity........11-14 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 13 mph with gusts to
around 30 mph increasing to 10 to 20 mph with
gusts to around 36 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......11200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 15 mph increasing to southwest
around 41 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (27700 knot-ft) increasing to excellent
(396600 knot-ft).
Haines Index........4 to 6 or low to high potential for large plume
dominated fire growth.
TIME (MDT) 6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........26 26 26 31 31 31 36 36 36 41 41 41
Weather cov.....NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Weather type....
Tstm cov........NONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONENONE
Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............42 46 51 56 60 64 67 70 71 72 73 72
RH..............33 27 22 18 15 13 13 12 13 13 13 13
20 FT wind dir..SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW SW
20 FT wind spd..5 5 5 8 8 8 13 13 13 16 16 16
20 FT wind gust.12 12 12 22 22 22 30 30 30 36 36 36
Mix hgt (kft)...1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.8 11 11 11 11
Transp wind dir.W W W W W W W W SW SW SW SW
Transp wind spd.15 15 15 15 29 29 29 29 41 41 41 41
Haines index....5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..28 28 28 28 237 237 237 237 397 397 397 397
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL EXL
.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Mostly clear. Very dry, windy afternoon. Lows in the lower 40s.
Highs near 70. West winds 15-25 mph with gusts 30-35 mph.
.WEDNESDAY...
Clear. Lows in the upper 30s. Highs in the upper 60s. Southwest
winds around 8 mph.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows around 40. Highs in the upper 60s. Southwest
winds around 7 mph.
$$
Forecaster...BIRD
Requested by...Francesca Chavez; FEMOs
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414008.6/EPZ
.DELDT 05/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL francesca.chavez@usda.gov