Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
381 FNUS74 KEPZ 302312 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for Cameron Creek RX...GILA NATIONAL FOREST National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 512 PM MDT Thu May 30 2024 Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 MDT on May 31. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... Dry conditions through at least the middle part of next week. Near critical fire danger with min RH 6-10% each afternoon. Expecting midday winds to prevail out of the southwest each day, generally 10 to 15 mph. Excellent smoke ventilation by the noon hour, with transport to the ENE. Light overnight winds, generally out of the north around 5 mph. No significant changes in day-to-day weather until late next week (June 6-10) when monsoonal flow and a chance for mountain thunderstorms begins. This will also help bring up afternoon RH headed into the second week of June. .FRIDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 86. Min humidity........7 percent. Wind (20 ft)........North winds around 6 mph shifting to the east late in the morning, then shifting to the southwest 7 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......13800 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northeast around 12 mph shifting to the southwest 9 to 12 mph in the late morning and afternoon. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (41000 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (125300 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to excellent (152500 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Haines Index........5 to 6 or high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM Sky (%).........4 9 23 23 11 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 Temp............69 79 83 84 86 RH..............17 12 10 9 8 20 ft wind......N 6 E 6 SW 7 SW 7 SW 9 20 ft wind gust.13 14 18 18 21 Mix hgt (ft)....4600 12900 12900 13800 13800 Transport wind..NE 12 S 9 S 9 SW 12 SW 12 Haines index....5 5 6 6 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..41 125 125 153 153 Ventrate Cat....FAIR VYGD VYGD EXNT EXNT .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 59. Max humidity........19 percent. Wind (20 ft)........West winds 6 to 8 mph with gusts to around 21 mph shifting to the north around 6 mph overnight. Mixing height.......11800 ft AGL decreasing to 700 ft AGL in the late evening and overnight. Transport winds.....West around 14 mph shifting to the northwest around 11 mph in the late evening and overnight. Smoke dispersal.....Very good (141300 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (6800 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........11 11 5 3 3 2 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............84 75 68 65 63 60 RH..............7 9 12 14 16 18 20 ft wind......W 8 W 8 NW 6 NW 6 NW 6 N 6 20 ft wind gust.21 21 15 13 13 13 Mix hgt (ft)....11800 11800 700 700 700 700 Transport wind..W 14 W 14 NW 11 NW 11 NW 11 NW 11 Haines index....6 6 6 6 6 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..141 141 7 7 7 7 Ventrate Cat....VYGD VYGD POOR POOR POOR POOR .SATURDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent). Chance of pcpn......0 percent. LAL.................1. Max temperature.....Around 87. Min humidity........8 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 5 to 6 mph shifting to the southwest 8 to 9 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......14300 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 9 to 14 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Poor (39000 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (123100 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to excellent (180900 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Haines Index........6 or high potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........3 3 2 3 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 0 0 LAL.............1 1 1 1 Temp............60 73 83 86 RH..............19 15 10 9 20 FT wind......N 6G13 W 5G14 SW 8G20 SW 9G21 Mix hgt (ft)....4900 4900 14000 14300 Transport wind..NW 10 NW 10 SW 9 W 14 Haines index....6 6 6 6 Vrate kt-ft/1K..39 39 123 181 Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR VYGD EXNT .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 7... .SUNDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. West winds around 7 mph. .MONDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the mid 80s. Northwest winds around 8 mph. .TUESDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 50s. Highs in the upper 80s. Northwest winds around 8 mph. .WEDNESDAY... Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs around 90. .THURSDAY... Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers. Lows in the lower 60s. Highs in the upper 80s. .OUTLOOK FOR FRIDAY JUNE 07 THROUGH THURSDAY JUNE 13... High pressure aloft will lead to temperatures slightly above seasonal normals around the middle part of next week. Models shift the center of the high pressure aloft eastward by the latter half of the week, possibly allowing for a shift to southeast winds and moisture advection. This would also promote more normal temperatures and slight chances for mountain thunderstorms. The risk of dry lightning would accompany any storm chances. Fire risk would also fall with lighter winds and better overnight RH recoveries. $$ Forecaster...DENNHARDT Requested by...Silver City Interagency Dispatch Center Type of request...PRESCRIBED .TAG 2415232.2/EPZ .DELDT 05/30/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL nmsdc@firenet.gov