Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA
505
FNUS72 KFFC 210905
FWSFFC
Spot Forecast for Pineknot I12 Backbone East...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
505 AM EDT Tue May 21 2024
Forecast is based on ignition time of 0900 EDT on May 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.
.DISCUSSION...
Good morning, Mike. The influence of surface high pressure will
promote clear skies and benign weather conditions at the burn site
today. Sunny conditions will allow for temperatures to warm into the
mid 80s for much of the afternoon, up to a high of 86 degrees. 20 ft
winds at the burn site will start out from E at 3 mph at ignition
time, increasing to 5 mph by 10 AM and up to 6 mph by 12 PM and
through the afternoon hours. Transport winds are similarly forecast
to be E throughout the day, starting at 6 mph at ignition time,
increasing to 8-9 mph after 10 AM and lowering slightly to 7 mph by
4 PM this afternoon. Relative humidity values will be just under 80
percent at ignition time, steadily lowering through the morning as
temperatures warm. Minimum RH values are forecast to be 42 percent
around 4-5 PM. The transport winds combined with mixing heights
increasing to as high as 5500-6000 ft will lead to ADI values in the
50s and good smoke dispersal this afternoon.
20 ft winds will diminish this evening, dropping to SE at 2 mph by 8
PM and through the overnight hours. Transport winds at the burn site
will similarly drop to SE at 2-3 mph after 8 PM, as well. LVORI
values will increase through the overnight hours, up to 5 by 4 AM
and as high as 7 by 6 AM tomorrow morning. Considering the light
winds and relative humidity values reaching near 90 percent, patchy
fog will be possible near the burn site, particularly within a
couple of hours before sunrise. However, better atmospheric moisture
and more widespread fog appears more likely well to the east of the
burn site at this time. Please feel free to contact us if you have
any further questions or concerns.
.REST OF TODAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 86.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Dewpoint............62 decreasing to 59 late in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming east 5 to 6 mph in the
late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......5900 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 6 to 9 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (8100 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (38800 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............3.
ADI.................8 early in the morning increasing to 56 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 5.0 early in the afternoon,
then increasing to 6.0 late in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........1 0 1 4 8 8 9 6 4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............71 75 78 80 82 83 84 85 85
Dewpoint........64 64 63 62 61 60 59 59 59
RH..............79 69 60 54 50 47 43 42 42
20 FT wind dir..E E E E E E E E E
20 FT wind spd..3 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 5
20 FT wind gust.7 8 9 10 10 10 10 10 9
Mix hgt (kft)...1.1 2.8 3.7 4.1 5.0 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.9
Transp wind dir.E E E E E E E E E
Transp wind spd.6 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 7
LVORI...........4 3 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
ADI.............8 30 45 51 56 54 53 52 48
Haines index....4 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..8 24 31 33 37 39 38 36 35
Ventrate Cat....PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR PR
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 25 5.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 6.0
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (5-15 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Min temperature.....Around 64.
Max humidity........91 percent.
Dewpoint............60.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph early in the evening
becoming light.
Mixing height.......200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 2 to 6 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (26000 knot-ft) early in the evening
decreasing to poor (500 knot-ft) late in the
night.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................1 to 31.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......6.0 increasing to 25 in the late evening and
overnight.
TIME (EDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM
Sky (%).........4 4 1 5 11 11
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............84 80 74 71 68 67
Dewpoint........59 62 61 61 60 61
RH..............44 54 66 72 76 83
20 ft wind......E 5 SE 2 SE 2 SE 2 SE 2 SE 2
20 ft wind gust.8 5 5 5 5 5
Mix hgt (ft)....4500 200 200 200 200 200
Transport wind..E 6 SE 3 SE 3 SE 3 SE 2 SE 3
LVORI...........1 2 3 3 4 5
ADI.............31 1 1 1 1 1
Haines index....4 4 4 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..26 1 1 1 1 1
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
Ceiling (kft)...6.0 6.0 25 25 25 25
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Sunny (20-30 percent).
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Max temperature.....Around 88.
Min humidity........43 percent.
Dewpoint............64.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming south around 5 mph late in
the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 7 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (600 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to good (32100 knot-ft) in the
afternoon.
LVORI...............4.
ADI.................1 early in the morning increasing to 45 in the
afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
plume dominated fire growth.
Pcpn amount.........0.00 inches.
CEILING (KFT).......25 decreasing to 3.5 late in the morning, then
increasing to 5.0 early in the afternoon
increasing to 6.0 late in the afternoon.
TIME (EDT) 6 AM 8 AM 10 AM NOON 2 PM 4 PM
Sky (%).........15 9 20 27 36 30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0 0 0 0 0 0
LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1
Temp............66 68 77 83 85 87
Dewpoint........62 65 66 65 63 62
RH..............89 89 69 56 47 43
20 ft wind......SE 2 S 2 S 3 S 3 S 5 S 5
20 ft wind gust.5 5 6 7 8 8
Mix hgt (ft)....200 200 2700 4000 5200 5500
Transport wind..SE 3 S 3 S 5 S 6 S 6 S 7
LVORI...........7 6 3 2 1 1
ADI.............1 3 16 27 34 43
Haines index....4 5 5 4 4 4
Vrate kt-ft/1K..1 1 13 19 24 30
Ventrate Cat....POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR POOR
Ceiling (kft)...25 25 25 4.0 5.0 6.0
$$
Forecaster...King
Requested by...Mike Thompson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414758.0/FFC
.DELDT 05/21/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL michael.thompson@tnc.org