599
FNUS73 KFGF 231142
FWSFGF

Spot Forecast for Skull Lake Rx...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
642 AM CDT Thu May 23 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0800 CDT on May 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

Please call the NWS in Grand Forks at 701-795-5127 for additional
information and monitor our website (www.weather.gov/fgf) or NOAA
All-Hazards Radio for the latest updates.

.DISCUSSION...

Higher RH values above 55 percent are expected through the day
today, with several periods of scattered showers this morning.
There may be a lull in coverage this afternoon, before more steady
light to moderate rain arrives and continues into Friday. Wetting
rain is expected, and there is a 60% chance for greater than 1
inch of rainfall overnight tonight into Friday where the burn is
planned. Winds initially start lighter today, but start to
increase late as the more organized system arrives. Windy
condtions will continue through Friday.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). Rain showers
                    likely early in the morning, then chance of
                    rain showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 58.
Min humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusts up to 21 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......2700 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northeast 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....12700 knot-ft early in the morning increasing
                    to 42800 knot-ft in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........78  81  80  79  78  77  85  93  92  91
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC LKY CHC CHC CHC CHC SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............42  44  46  48  50  51  53  54  55  55
RH..............86  79  75  71  66  63  59  59  57  57
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
20 FT wind gust.9   11  12  14  14  15  15  16  18  19
Mix hgt (kft)...1.2 1.4 1.8 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.6 2.7 2.4
Mixing wind dir.E   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E
Mixing wind spd.15  15  15  15  15  15  15  15  20  15
Vrate kt-ft/1K..13  15  20  23  29  30  29  36  43  36

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Rain showers
                    through the night. Chance of thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds 10 to 15 mph shifting to the
                    east around 20 mph early in the morning. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    in the late evening and overnight. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Mixing height.......700 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northeast 15 to 20 mph shifting to the east
                    around 25 mph overnight.
Smoke dispersal.....33900 knot-ft early in the evening decreasing
                    to 10900 knot-ft late in the night.

TIME (CDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........90     91     94     97     98     98
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........              S CHC  S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE
Temp............56     53     49     47     46     45
RH..............57     64     74     86     89     93
20 ft wind......NE 10  E 10   NE 10  E 15   E 15   E 15
20 ft wind gust.19     18     19     22     23     23
Mix hgt (ft)....2300   800    700    1500   1400   1400
Mixing wind.....E 15   E 15   NE 20  E 25   E 25   E 25
Vrate kt-ft/1K..34     11     11     32     31     32

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (90-100 percent). Rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms.
Max temperature.....Around 54.
Min humidity........80 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 20 mph shifting to the
                    northwest late in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL.
Mixing winds........Northeast 20 to 25 mph shifting to the
                    northwest late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....23700 knot-ft early in the morning increasing
                    to 38700 knot-ft in the afternoon.

TIME (CDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........98        93        89        89
Weather cov.....DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE    DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........S CHC     S CHC     S CHC     S CHC
Temp............44        47        48        47
RH..............93        89        89        86
20 FT wind......E 20G25   E 20G25   NE 20G23  NW 20G25
Mix hgt (ft)....1400      1300      1300      1600
Mixing wind.....E 25      E 20      N 20      NW 25
Vrate kt-ft/1K..31        24        25        32

$$
Forecaster...DJR
Requested by...Jacob Anderson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2414956.0/FGF
.DELDT 05/23/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL janderson@tnc.org