385
FNUS75 KFGZ 190133
FWSFGZ

Spot Forecast for ELK FIRE...USFS
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
633 PM MST Sat May 18 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1900 MST on May 18.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the
National Weather Service in Flagstaff, AZ

.DISCUSSION...Dry weather will continue through the weekend
and into next week. Expect breezy afternoon southwest winds
gusting up to 30 mph Sunday, strengthening on Monday with gusts
around 40 mph. Afternoon humidity will drop into the low teens
both days.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 42.
Max humidity........50 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......3.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 10 knots.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 74.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts
                    up to 30 mph.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......1870.
Mixing height.......8500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15 to 20 knots.

.SUNDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 43.
Max humidity........33 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 10 mph.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Min Vent Rate.......Poor.
Clearing Index......6.
Mixing height.......100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 10 to 15 knots.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny.
Chance of pcpn......0 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........13 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 40 mph.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Max Vent Rate.......Excellent.
Clearing Index......4698.
Mixing height.......9700 ft AGL in the morning and early afternoon
                    increasing to 10900 ft AGL late in the
                    afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 30 knots increasing to around
                    40 knots in the late morning and afternoon.

$$
Forecaster...M TAYLOR
Requested by...KURT MATTOCKS
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2414619.0/FGZ
.DELDT 05/18/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kurt.mattocks@usda.gov