Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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135 FXUS63 KFSD 252337 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 637 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms slides in near the Missouri River Valley this evening and the U.S. Highway 20 corridor overnight. A strong to briefly severe thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out with hail up to quarter size and wind gusts up to 60 mph. - Periods of off and on scattered showers and storms continue through Sunday and Monday. Severe weather is unlikely with this activity. - Dry, seasonal conditions develop Monday night through Wednesday. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 244 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 TONIGHT: At 2 PM, radar shows mid to high based scattered showers lifting north of the Hwy 14 corridor with the warm sector. Further south, clouds are clearing nicely which should still allow areas in far southeast SD, northeast NE, and northwest IA to warm into the upper 70s and near 80 degrees. Mixing into a 30-40 kt low level jet will still bring occasional gusts in the 30s. This evening, expect another area of scattered showers and storms to develop near the inverted sfc trough in south central SD at the nose of an axis of 1000 J/kg skinny MLCAPE as the upper level wave upstream ejects into the High Plains. This activity tracks east through the evening with greater coverage of rain the further south you go. Can`t entirely rule out a strong to marginally severe thunderstorm or two overnight with the main threat 9 PM to 4 AM. This is most likely in south central SD early this evening, spreading east to the Hwy 20 corridor overnight, but decreasing deep layer shear and instability will make it difficult to maintain a strong updraft as the night progresses. Main threat is more likely to be wind gusts up to 60 mph with collapsing storms due to dry subcloud layer air, with a secondary threat of hail up to quarter size. Winds turn more northeast and north behind the sfc trough with temperatures falling to a mild 50s overnight. Cloudy skies linger overnight with model profiles favoring widespread low level stratus by early Sunday morning. SUNDAY: Showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue in northwest IA, northeast NE, and far southeast SD through Sunday morning as the mid level wave tracks through near the I-90 corridor. Stratus should lift to a cumulus field in the afternoon, leaving areas north of I-90 mostly dry for the day but some lingering showers possible near and south of I-90. Expect a breezy north northeast winds with temperatures rising into the 70s. Another round of showers and storms will slide into central and eastern SD Sunday evening and eventually southwest MN overnight. With very weak winds aloft and <1000 J/kg MLCAPE, severe weather is not expected with weaker airmass thunderstorms. MONDAY: Low to moderate (<50%) chance of showers and weaker storms comes again Monday through early Monday evening near and east of I- 29 as an upper wave slides to our north. Expect another day with a breezy northwest gradient wind as well. MONDAY NIGHT AND BEYOND: Little to no noteworthy weather impacts with seasonal temperatures expected Monday night through Wednesday as dry high pressure builds through. A strong upper level trough tracking east through Canada drags a front and narrow warm sector into the Plains late week, bringing the next rounds of showers and storms. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/... Issued at 637 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024 VFR conditions continue this evening with spotty sprinkles/light showers near/north of I-90 in east central SD. Chance for a few thunderstorms with this high-based activity moving east out of central SD as the evening progresses, though greater chance for thunder will track through the Missouri River Valley-northwest Iowa after 03Z-05Z, impacting KSUX more than KFSD/KHON. While an isolated stronger storm with hail/strong winds is possible, more likely scenario would be occasional erratic wind gusts at or below 40kt. Stronger convective activity exits east of the area by daybreak Sunday, replaced by areas of MVFR-locally IFR ceilings along with a chance of light showers lingering east of I-29 corridor through the morning hours. Improvement to more widespread VFR conditions expected again after 18Z. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BP AVIATION...JH