203
FXUS63 KFSD 010910
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
410 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Monitoring potential severe weather outbreak later Sunday
  into Sunday night. However, confidence in details on location
  and timing are currently low and may heavily depend on how
  morning convection evolves. Stay tuned for updates.

- Tuesday may be the next chance for severe weather, but still
  some question marks, the main one being a potential MCS late
  Monday night into Tuesday morning which could push the deeper
  instability south and limit Tuesday afternoon potential.

- Quiet weather and seasonable temperatures are expected to
  prevail mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 400 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

TODAY: Ridging surface and aloft should provide a quiet day with
seasonable temperatures topping out in the mid-upper 70s. Starting
off the day with widespread stratus, but expect this to slowly thin
and diminish through midday/early afternoon. May have to watch south
central SD for isolated-scattered convective development in the warm
advection behind the surface ridge, but consensus in the CAMs keeps
this activity largely southwest of our area through the daylight
hours. A rare day with light winds will also prevail thanks to the
surface high, but this will also lead to some patchy fog early this
morning.

TONIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT: Main focus will be on potential for increasing
storm coverage and possible severe weather through the latter half
of the weekend. Unfortunately, diverging solutions among the various
CAMs are leading to low confidence in exactly how things will evolve
late tonight through Sunday night. Current thinking is that we will
see a complex of storms develop west of I-29 tonight in response to
warm advection and an increasing low level jet ahead of a mid level
wave lifting northeast in the area. While exact location varies,
broader consensus carries this activity eastward through Sunday
morning, likely leaving somewhat more stable air and various outflow
boundaries in its wake. This could limit redevelopment during the
afternoon Sunday, at least initially until stronger forcing arrives
with an approaching cold front toward evening, and have trimmed back
pops to more of a chance range (30-50%) during the afternoon. Not
all CAMs agree with this scenario however, with some indicating more
rapid redevelopment by mid-late afternoon west of I-29, so will
certainly have to monitor trends to see if they converge on a better
consensus.

Will still maintain pops ramping up in the evening/overnight Sunday
as the cold front and associated mid-upper level trough slide east
across the region. Most likely scenario would point to discrete
supercells developing along the front in central South Dakota and
Nebraska by late afternoon/early evening, transitioning to linear
segments as they track east through the evening. Uncertainty lies in
what areas will be impacted by the stronger portions of these lines
and what lingering role any convection early in the day may have on
this evolution. For now, recommended action will be to keep a close
eye on later forecasts and have a plan of action should trends point
to stronger impacts through our forecast area.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Somewhat similar scenario repeats itself early next
week, with weak ridging on Monday giving way to increasing chances
for showers/storms Monday night into Tuesday as the next stronger
mid-upper level trough swings through the region. Main difference
at this point seems to be quicker timing of the upper trough and
associated cold front on Tuesday, which leaves limited time for
recovery from any morning convection and may limit severe potential
for later Tuesday.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: We transition to a less active pattern behind
the Tuesday trough, which slows and becomes nearly stationary
over Ontario or the western Great Lakes through the latter half
of the week. This places our forecast area in broad northwest
flow with limited moisture and seasonable temperatures. Decent
daytime mixing will likely lead to breezy-windy conditions,
especially during the late morning-early evening.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024

Showers east of Interstate 29 will end from west to east through
08Z. Latest hi-res guidance has MVFR/IFR stratus developing
behind the exiting showers, with some potential for patchy fog
for portions of the area toward 12Z. Any low stratus will lift
by Saturday morning. Winds will continue to be light through
Saturday evening.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...JM