Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
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604 FXUS64 KFWD 010827 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 327 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 112 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024/ /Today and Tonight/ A MCS with a well-defined cold pool is moving east across West Texas early this morning. Corfidi vectors indicate it should continue moving SE around 20 kts through the pre-dawn hours, gradually weakening as it moves into more unfavorable low-level inflow. We expect the leading edge of the cold pool to move into our westernmost counties north of I-20 around 3-4 AM. By this time, it should be sub-severe with wind gusts to around 30-40 mph, maybe a few storms, and a contracting area of stratiform precip. While a few showers are possible across North Texas after sunrise, most of the area will be precip-free early this morning. The MCS will leave a stalled outflow boundary across the region as well as a remnant MCV somewhere across North Texas. Both of these features should serve as a source of ascent for isolated to scattered thunderstorms this afternoon. Since the guidance has been notoriously bad at handling these small-scale features this week, we are still uncertain where these features will be later today. Due to this, we have maintained broad-brushed 20-30 PoPs across much of the region this afternoon. We`re more confident that some storms will develop today, but the low PoPs are due to lack of confidence regarding where the storms will be. We have slightly more confidence that most of the convection should take place along or east of I-35 with storms moving ESE after developing. The parameter space for severe weather isn`t off the charts like it was for much of last week, but there is still sufficient deep- layer shear and instability to support a low-end severe wind and hail risk. After the afternoon convection dissipates after sunset, we`ll have to shift our attention west to another MCS that should move into western North Texas early Sunday morning. Bonnette && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Sunday Onward/ North and Central Texas will lie beneath the northern flank of a mid level ridge (centered over Mexico) at the start of the period. The resulting flow aloft will create a couple opportunities for thunderstorms to start next week. The first of which will be late Sunday as the ridge is somewhat compromised by a shortwave trough passing through the Plains. An active afternoon and evening of convection is expected from the Dakotas southward into the Southern Plains, with North and Central Texas sitting on the southern edge. It is likely that the dryline will provide a focus for convective initiation over Northwest Texas Sunday afternoon, with activity propagating east-southeast through our forecast area Sunday evening. Storms will encounter a strengthening cap the farther east they get, which should cause weakening as they move through and east of the I-35 corridor. Until they weaken, a damaging wind threat may exist primarily west of I-35. A second shortwave will generate another round of storms Monday afternoon and evening. The latest guidance places the higher thunderstorm probabilities either along the Red River where the stronger ascent will reside, or across Central Texas within an axis of exceptionally high instability. Storms may end up being isolated, but model soundings support supercellular structure with an attendant threat for large hail and damaging winds with any storm which may develop. A slight pattern shift will occur on Tuesday as the ridge expands north, bringing a return to northwest flow aloft. A deepening upper trough across the Midwest and Ohio Valley will amplify the pattern for the mid to late week period. It looks at this time like the ridge will dominate Tuesday and Wednesday, shutting off our rain chances for a day or two while providing our warmest weather of the week. The north to northwest flow will eventually usher in another weak cold front, which will likely cross the Red River on Thursday and stall somewhere across North or Central Texas. This boundary and additional disturbances in the flow aloft will bring more chances for rain and storms late next week into the following weekend. 30 && .AVIATION... /Issued 112 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024/ /06Z TAFs/ VFR and light southeast flow should prevail through most of the pre-dawn hours. The anvil of a convective complex over West Texas is currently moving over the region and will remain in place for much of the morning. The storms should weaken as they move into the western D10 ARR/DEP gates, with only a remnant outflow boundary remaining by the time it moves into D10 this morning. The stalled boundary and a weak mid-level disturbance should help develop isolated to scattered thunderstorms over North Texas this afternoon. We have introduced VCTS to the TAFs to account for this, but we do not have high enough confidence that storms will take place over D10 itself to add a TS TEMPO at this time. Most storms should move east late in the afternoon and dissipate after sunset. Bonnette && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 88 74 89 75 90 / 30 20 30 30 20 Waco 89 74 88 74 90 / 20 10 30 20 20 Paris 86 69 88 71 86 / 30 10 30 20 40 Denton 87 72 88 73 90 / 30 20 30 30 20 McKinney 87 72 87 73 88 / 30 20 30 30 30 Dallas 89 74 89 74 90 / 30 20 30 30 30 Terrell 88 72 87 73 88 / 30 10 30 20 30 Corsicana 88 74 89 75 90 / 30 10 30 20 20 Temple 89 75 88 75 90 / 20 10 30 20 10 Mineral Wells 88 72 89 73 91 / 20 20 30 30 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$