561
FXUS65 KGGW 310847
AFDGGW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Glasgow MT
247 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024

.DISCUSSION...

KEY MESSAGES:

1) A general warming trend is expected this weekend into next
week with a strong upper ridge pattern evolving over the western
US.

2) Drier conditions overall will coincide with this, aside
from isolated convection from afternoon instability and a notable
system Monday night into Tuesday.

WEATHER PATTERN OVERVIEW:

While to a lesser extent than yesterday, gusty west winds return
as lingering influence from a shortwave trough provides enough
daytime instability for isolated afternoon showers and
thunderstorms for far NE Montana. Forecast wind conditions are
marginal and generally just short of Lake Wind Advisory and SPS
criteria.

Look for a warming trend this weekend into next week with a
progressive pattern initially and various shortwave ridges/troughs
tracking through the region. The expectation will be for a
gradual uptick in temperatures along with occasional chances for
showers and thunderstorms. The most notable shortwave and chance
for more widespread thunderstorms arrives Monday night. Longer
term ensembles differ in the extent of ridging later next week
which would lead to more of the same or a hot/dry pattern
developing.

CONFIDENCE & DEVIATIONS:

Confidence is medium and increasing for an eventual broad ridge
and warmer/drier pattern setting up late next week, but an active
progressive pattern over the next few days will lend to
uncertainty in the precise timing. Aside from Monday night into
Tuesday, there is low confidence on the timing or materialization
of measurable rain. No deviations were made from the NBM at this
time.

-Zanker

&&

.AVIATION...

LAST UPDATED: 0830Z

FLIGHT CAT: VFR

DISCUSSION: Enough instability for isolated afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will exist mainly northeast of a line from KOLF to
KSDY. Otherwise, expect dry conditions with scattered mid level
clouds.

SFC WIND: West 10 to 20 kts with gusts around 25 kts becoming
light/variable this evening.

&&

.GGW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

weather.gov/glasgow