701
FXUS63 KGID 241026
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
526 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cool, dry and brisk conditions today.

- Next chance for thunderstorms - including the potential for
  severe weather - comes Saturday evening and overnight.

- Large hail and damaging winds are the main threats, though a
  few tornadoes and isolated flooding are also possible. Those
  with Saturday eve/night activities, particularly campers, will
  want to stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

- Rain chances continue into Sunday, but dry and pleasant
  weather expected for Memorial Day Monday. Off and on rain
  chances return Tuesday night through the end of the week
  amidst generally seasonable temperatures.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 510 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Busy late evening and overnight, so not a ton of time to do a
deep dive into the forecast. Fortunately, the very short term of
today and tonight is quiet and dry, albeit a bit cool and
breezy - esp. this morning.

Saturday looks to be quite similar to what Thursday was like
with strong southerly winds bringing warmer air back into the
area, and eventually some higher low level moisture as well. The
mid to upper level pattern is not particularly interesting,
though models are in good general agreement that a low amplitude
shortwave will eject out of the Southwest and onto the C. Plains
between 18Z Sat and 12Z Sun. The timing of this wave appears to
be slightly slower than 24-48 hrs ago, which contributes to a
slightly slower moisture return. Similar to yesterday, appears
that boundary layer moisture deep enough to compete with capping
from an elevated mixed layer won`t occur until later in the day,
so have fairly high confidence that most, if not all, of the
daylight hrs will be dry. A potential caveat to this would be
over portions of north central KS near a sfc triple point of a W
to E warm front and a N to S dry line. However, even for these
areas most model guidance has trended later to mainly around or
after 00Z/7PM. If something can develop, would probably be
isolated in nature given modest moisture and overall forcing,
but could be supercellular with very large hail given moderate
to strong deep layer shear and very steep mid level lapse rates.

The more likely scenario appears to be trending towards one
where convective coverage and organization increases after dark
in response to increasing low level jet, arrival of deeper
moisture, and height falls/weakening cap with approach of mid
level shortwave. WHERE exactly this occurs is probably the most
uncertain aspect at this time as model guidance varies anywhere
from central Neb. (NAM) to more focused S of Hwy 6 and E of Hwy
281 (GFS/EC). There will need to be a lot of work done in the
moisture return department, so tend to favor the more SErly
solutions which could potentially spare the Tri-Cities N and W
from the most severe activity. However, with there still being
some uncertainty and a mostly nighttime event over a long
holiday weekend, want to emphasize the importance that campers
stay up to date with latest forecasts and have at least a couple
methods to receive warnings as they can be especially
vulnerable to severe weather. The mainly overnight scenario
would tend to favor initial threat of hail, transitioning to
mainly high wind and heavy rain/flash flooding late.

Mid to upper flow transitions to more NWrly for the rest of the
Memorial Day Weekend, so this could continue some shower and
thunderstorm chances into Sunday. Instability should be fairly
limited owing to cooler/drier air, so severe weather appears
unlikely on Sunday. Memorial Day Monday looks more solidly dry
at this time with seasonable high temps in the 70s to near 80F.

Dry and seasonable weather persists into Tuesday before off and
on rain chances return to the forecast Tuesday night and
continue through most of the rest of the work week. Too far out
for much in the way of details, but should eventually see a
return of greater moisture/instability by around Thu or Fri.


&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Fri May 24 2024

Main concern lies in the first couple hours, as a line of strong
to severe thunderstorms makes its way east across the forecast
area. Once this activity clears, the rest of the TAF period is
dry with VFR conditions. Gusty NW winds expected to last through
the daytime hours Friday.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Thies
AVIATION...ADP