195
FXUS63 KGID 012101
AFDGID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hastings NE
401 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms possible tonight and again Sunday night.
  An enhanced risk for severe storms (mainly with wind gusts in
  excess of 70 MPH) now in effect for Sunday night.

- Continued thunderstorm chances both Monday and Tuesday with a
  break in precipitation chances expected mid-week.

- High temperatures in the mid-80s expected Sunday through
  Wednesday. A slight cooldown with high temperatures closer to
  80 expected to end the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

After a few sub-severe thunderstorms impacted western portions
of the area this morning along with a blanket of fog across the
region, skies have cleared and a mostly sunny and nice
afternoon is shaping up across the local area. Some CU can be
seen on satellite forming mainly west of the local area, where
instability has been building this afternoon. Looking at
mesoscale analysis, plenty of instability - only the order of
3000 J/KG - is building across southwestern Nebraska where
modest shear - with effective shear values of 35-45KTS - exists.
This combination should be sufficient for severe thunderstorm
development near the dryline over the next couple of hours,
which will eventually transition east towards the local area by
the mid to late evening hours. As these storms reach the western
fringes of the local area late this evening, large hail will
still be a concern, with the threat transitioning to a mainly
wind threat later in the night as these storms push east. A
slight risk for severe weather exists mainly west of highway 281
this evening where the hail threat is greatest, with a marginal
threat for severe weather extending east across nearly the
remainder of the area for the overnight hours.

For Sunday, the severe weather threat was increased to an
enhanced risk for severe weather from the Storm Prediction
Center earlier in the day as models have been indicating the
threat for a MCS developing and impacting a large portion of the
local area during the evening and overnight hours Sunday. This
would largely translate into a wind threat across the local
area, with a 30 percent chance for significant wind currently in
the forecast. In addition to the wind, this looks to be the
better chance for a more widespread potential for heavy
rainfall, and will need to continue to monitor pockets of heavy
rain as soils are saturated across the region.

Thereafter...the upper level flow remains fairly active, with
additional thunderstorms chances in the forecast both Monday and
Tuesday...primarily during the evening and overnight hours.
Currently, the severe weather potential appears fairly low with
potential flooding possibly being the greater concern.

For the middle of the week, upper level ridging should help put
a cap on thunderstorm potential both Wednesday and Thursday,
with high temperatures topping out mostly in the mid-80s - or
about 5 to 7 degrees above normal. Thereafter, uncertainty
increases in model data and low end chances for thunderstorms
are in the forecast for the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1154 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The winds will become more southeasterly today as high presure
over NE will move to the SE today. Tonight the models try to
bring in a cluster of storms, but disagree on location and
timing so decided to VCTS tonight for the best window of seeing
something. As the current cluster of showers makes its way
across expect lower ceilings to scatter out and VFR is expected
this afternoon and evening. Tomorrow morning it is looking like
MVFR ceilings will move into the area.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rossi
AVIATION...Beda/Wekesser