800
FXUS64 KHGX 251759
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1259 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Hot temperatures are in the forecast again today as highs top out in
the 90s inland and in the mid to upper 80s along the coast. The
combination of heat and humidity will result in heat index values in
the 100-107 degree range. A few locations may touch 108 degrees.
Surface winds will be elevated today (in the 10-15mph range), which
may provide a bit of relief with the hotter temperatures.

Lows for tonight will be on the warmer side as temperatures hover
at or just below the 80 degree mark.

Sunday is set to be a bit hotter as 850mb temperatures max out in
the NAEFS mean. Temperatures will be in the 90s area wide with mid
to upper 80s along the coast. Dew points will reach into the upper
70s and will lead to humid conditions. The combination of heat and
humidity will result in heat index values bumping up a bit into the
advisory range. Most of the area will experience HI values in excess
of 100 degrees. Locations in the metro and further inland will be in
the 107-110 range. This will likely necessitate the issuance of
Heat Advisory for portions of SE Texas on Sunday.

Sunday night`s temperatures will be similar to tonight`s with most
areas in the 70s to around 80 degrees.

With daytime temperatures getting hotter and humidity increasing,
please remember to take precautions if you plan to be out in the
heat. Stay hydrated, avoid strenuous activity during the hottest
part of the day, look before you lock, and remember that if it is
too hot for the palm of your hand, the ground is too hot for your
pets` paws!

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Dog breath type wx should peak on Monday. Highs in the 94-98F
range inland and close to 90 at the beaches will combine with high
dewpoints/RH`s and produce peak heat indices in the 105-113F
range. A Heat Advisory will likely be ongoing, and if not, one
will likely be required.

On Tuesday, winds will transition to more of a SE direction versus
the warmer SW. Though still uncomfortable, daytime highs will
begin trending downward into the 90-95F range. We should also see
the miserable dewpoints in the upper 70s to near 80 begin modifying
back toward 72-76 as some recycled "drier" air starts backdooring
into the region from a weak frontal boundary that`ll be sagging
into the Mississippi Valley and Louisiana. We should get some
slow, gradual relief each day in the mid and late work week
period.

In regards to rain chances, we`ll focus on areas to our w/nw
Monday afternoon. Guidance still suggests the potential for parts
of the dryline to light up...with remnants possibly getting
close, or into, parts of the Brazos Valley or Piney Woods Monday
evening. Tuesday, we`ll look at the NE parts of the CWA toward
peak heating where we might see some scattered convection on the
western periphery of the backdoor front/boundary. Tuesday night
through Friday, we should see multiple chances for shra/tstms
across parts of the area. This`ll come from typical daytime heating,
but will also need to be cognizant of disturbances moving in from
our NW. These could come just about anytime and most deterministic
data shows some moving in every 24-36 hours. Problem is timing
really isn`t consistent between models, some in the day / some at
night, which isn`t uncommon in such patterns. We`ll just advertise
lowish POPs for now during most time periods then ramp them up
when things begin to line up better and confidence improves.  47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

As of 1230 pm CT, satellite imagery continued to show cloud decks
gradually scattering out across SE TX and we may be under mostly
VFR conditions by mid to late afternoon. MVFR cigs however are
expected to re-develop tonight into Sun morning for most of the
region. They will gradually lift and scatter out after around
15Z. Today, S-SE winds are expected to range between 08-12 kts
with higher gusts on occasion as the local pressure gradient
strengthens and a llvl jet shifts closer into our area. Winds will
remain near 08-10 kts overnight for most locations as the llvl
jet strengthens, and increase 10-15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts
can be expected by Sun morning.

24

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Sat May 25 2024

Buoys are showing 4-5ft seas and sse winds 10-15kt. Though both
are below caution flag criteria, I`m going to keep it going for
the waters as winds should increase back into the 15-20kt range
later today (and also considering it`s a holiday weekend).
Moderate onshore winds and 3-6ft seas will continue thru Mon and
one can anticipate a higher than normal risk of rip currents along
area beaches. Swim near a lifeguard and away from rocks, jetties
and piers. SE fetch lengthens, and speeds increase at times into
mid-late week. We currently have 3-5ft seas in the forecast, but
wouldn`t be surprised if we see some slight upward adjustments
with time. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)  94  77  94  77 /   0   0  10   0
Houston (IAH)  93  78  94  80 /   0   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)  86  80  86  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Beach Hazards Statement through late Sunday night for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 PM CDT this evening
     for GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...24
MARINE...47