Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
Issued by NWS San Joaquin Valley, CA
950 FXUS66 KHNX 222056 AFDHNX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Hanford CA 156 PM PDT Wed May 22 2024 && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Strong, gusty west winds are expected in the Mojave Desert Slopes this afternoon into early Thursday morning. 2. A cooling trend is anticipated Thursday through Saturday. 3. A few strong thunderstorms are possible in the Sierra Nevada Friday afternoon. 4. Strong, gusty west winds are conceivable in the Mojave Desert Slopes each afternoon and evening Thursday through Saturday. && .DISCUSSION... Northwest flow continues over the Golden State this afternoon as a dominate upper low is dropping through the central Columbia River Basin. The upper low opens a little into a trough as it crosses the Great Basin overnight and this time on Thursday is over the Northern Rockies. Northwest flow continues with lower heights. This should bring temperatures down a few degrees from this afternoon`s maximums. On Thursday the probabilistic forecast for PoE of 90*F falls below 20% for the San Joaquin Valley, however in the Kern County desert Edwards AFB has a 36% and China Lake NAF 81%. The Mojave Slope wind advisory continues for the region. The Bakersfield to Vegas pressure gradient is at 6 millibars (MB) this afternoon and weakens to 4 MB overnight. The thermal trough lines up fairly well with the Colorado River along the NV/CA/AZ boarder. The PoE of 45 mph is near 100% from Highway 58 and 14 intersection near the town of Mojave extending north along Highway 14 to Ridgecrest. The probability nears zero by California City and Edwards AFB. On Friday a little stronger waves moves through the the Northwest flow aloft. This brings the slim probability of thunder to the Sierra crest and leeward side with very limited convective energy to the work with. The probability of thunder at the highest elevations is only 5% to 15%. The highlight is the continued drop in heights that will help nudge the temperatures down to near 30 year normals for the region. The PoE of 85*F, as a proxy for normal, roughly ranges from 10% to 40%. Only China Lake NAF increases PoE to 86%. On the Mojave Slope Winds, the probabilities decrease down 25% to 45% for PoE of 45 mph. Saturday northwest flow continues as the main energy kicks into the Great Basin. The probability of thunder drops below 5% for the Sierra crests. Temperatures continue to tweak down again with PoE of 80*F coming in in the range of 35% to 55% for the San Joaquin Valley and 50% to 90% for the Kern County Desert. Sunday the flow starts to back to the west in the upper levels and the cooling trend comes to an end. The PoE of 85*F increases to 30% to 60% for the San Joaquin Valley and 80% to near 100% for the Kern County Desert. Monday through next Thursday the flow continues West to Southwest aloft featuring rising upper heights each day. This bring temperatures back above normal into the 90s. The chart below will provide the PoE of 90*F to feature the trend of the increasing temperatures. On the probability of thunder, the Sierra Crests remain below a 5% probability throughout the period. PoE of 90*F Location Mon Tue Wed Next Thu Merced 46% 56% 61% 56% Madera 46% 61% 61% 56% Fresno 61% 71% 71% 66% Reedley 36% 56% 61% 51% Lemoore NAS 36% 56% 61% 61% Hanford 56% 71% 66% 66% Visalia 61% 71% 66% 66% Porterville 46% 66% 66% 61% Delano 61% 76% 71% 66% Bakersfield 61% 76% 66% 66% Edwards AFB 86% 81% 86% 86% China Lake NAF 91% >99% >99% >99% && .AVIATION... VFR conditions will prevail across Central California through at least the next 24 hours. && .AIR QUALITY ISSUES... ISSUED: 05/21/2024 14:48 EXPIRES: 05/22/2024 23:59 None. && .CERTAINTY... The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is medium. The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium. Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information and/or to provide feedback. && .HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ338. && $$ public/aviation/fire weather...Proton DSS....DS weather.gov/hanford