528
FXUS64 KHUN 211407
AFDHUN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
907 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New NEAR TERM...

.NEAR TERM...
(Rest of Today)
Issued at 907 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

With sfc high pressure continuing to influence the TN Valley from
the Carolinas region in addition to upper level ridging moving in
from the west, dry weather and clear skies will dominate this
morning into the afternoon. Winds are forecast to be southerly
around 5-10 mph with occasional gusts up to 15 mph. High
temperatures are forecast to reach the upper 80s in most areas,
with a very low chance (less than 10%) of some locations reaching
90 degrees. We are in a `Minor` heat risk for most of the area,
meaning that this level of heat will primarily affect individuals
extremely sensitive to heat- especially when outdoors without
effective cooling and/or adequate hydration.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

The axis of the upper level ridge (though still strong) weakens
and a weak pre-frontal axis extending SSW of the impulse moving
into the western Great Lakes region along the front makes some
headway east towards the area. This will likely be able to produce
some strong to severe storms near the axis of this pre-frontal
trough axis. However, this will still be centered to our west and
affect mainly the Mississippi Valley region. Further southeast,
the eastern edge of this activity could approach north central MS
and the Nashville area towards daybreak on Wednesday. Expect
mainly mostly clear to partly cloudy conditions tonight, but some
mostly cloudy conditions may start pushing into the area around
daybreak. Southerly winds will likely remain between 5 and 10
knots through much of the evening. The exception to this might be
in far eastern Alabama. There, some patchy fog may be possible.

With increasing moisture advection over the area and higher winds,
expect temperatures to only drop into the 65 to 70 degree range in
most areas. The exception might be again far eastern Alabama,
where some lows could drop into the 60 to 65 degree due to the
lighter winds in that area.

During the day on Wednesday, most guidance continues to flatten
out the ridge aloft a bit more over the southeast. However, it
still appears that the ridge is strong enough to stall the front
just northwest of the area during the day across eastern Oklahoma
NE into Kentucky. This will likely keep convection to our northeast
still. However, on and off mostly cloudy conditions will likely
occur. This should keep high temperatures a bit cooler than the
previous day, only climbing into the mid to upper 80s across the
area.

Winds could become lighter again Wednesday night. This could set
the stage for some more widespread fog development if thicker and
more persistent cloud cover wasn`t expected. Not much changes
Wednesday night, but models do slightly weaken the upper ridge
southeast of the front just a bit more. This could allow maybe for
a 20 to 40 percent coverage of showers or storms to make it into
areas mainly north of the Tennessee River. At this time, do not
think these would be severe.

On Thursday into Friday, things don`t change much as another
stronger impulse of energy forms along the stalled front over
eastern Texas. We will likely be on the very edge with similar
shower or thunderstorm chances. Again, more persistent cloud
cover will likely keep highs in the lower to mid 80s both days.
Lows will be very sultry only dropping into the 66 to 71 degree
range.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Monday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

This impulse along the front swings east Friday night and south of
the area Saturday night. This subsequently bring medium to high
(40-70%) chance for showers and storms to the area. General view
of the storm environment would favor plenty of CAPE with
sufficient shear to support at least a few organized strong
storms, with gusty winds and hail (along with locally heavy
downpours) being the main threats on Friday night into Saturday
night. We`ll remain in a fairly active pattern through the the
upcoming Memorial Day holiday weekend, with zonal low aloft
allowing for additional shortwaves to traverse the region.
Subsequently, medium chances (40-60%)for showers/storms will be
present in the forecast both Sunday and Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Light or calm winds will likely continue after 12Z. However,
southerly winds are expected to become more established during the
day today between 5 and 10 knots gusting to between 10 and 15
knots after 15Z. We should lose the wind gusts tonight, as winds
remain between 5 and 10 knots. VFR conditions are expected
throughout the TAF period.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

NEAR TERM...HC
SHORT TERM....KTW
LONG TERM....KTW
AVIATION...KTW