924
FXUS63 KICT 022016
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
316 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms this afternoon, especially north of
  Highway 50

- Additional storm chances tonight into Monday

- More rain chances through midweek&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 313 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

As of 3 PM Sunday afternoon, WAA near 700mb continues to generate
isolated to scattered showers/storms mainly north of Highway 50.
These showers/storms will continue decreasing in coverage and
intensity with eastward extent as the WAA diminishes.

Further west, a very similar setup to Saturday evening/this morning
is emerging with convection developing across the higher terrain.
This convection is likely to gradually progress eastward into
western KS. The best low-level theta-e will once again reside across
western OK, which should steer any MCS mainly southwest of the
forecast area. Short term radar trends will need to be monitored
overnight. More storm development is possible towards dawn
Monday if today`s convection weakens overnight, allowing the
LLJ to overspread western OK. This would bring the nose of the
jet near the stateline. Like today, prolonged weak WAA near
700mb could support showers/storms through the day Monday. All
of that to say, confidence remains quite low for widespread
convection at any given location in our forecast area.

The active pattern will continue through at least midweek with weak
perturbations translating across the Plains atop a weakly to
moderately unstable environment. Confidence continues to increase
for the active pattern continuing with the main midlevel ridge axis
remaining west of the Plains. This result would keep shower/storm
chances going and temperatures in the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Showers and storm continue to develop across portions of central
and south-central KS and will impact the all terminals except
CNU through 20-21Z. Behind the showers/storms, winds may briefly
shift to the east at 10-15 kt but should quickly return to the
south at 15-25 kt. More convection is possible late tonight into
Monday but confidence is quite low and have opted for a four
hour PROB 30 group at each terminal. MVFR CIGS may accompany the
convection late tonight into Monday.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMB
AVIATION...BMB