704
FXUS63 KICT 251934
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
234 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe thunderstorms this evening and overnight

- Drying out Sunday and into Monday

- Next chance for showers and thunderstorm will be mid to late next
week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

This afternoon and evening forecast is heavily dependent on when
quality moisture (Tds >65F) arrives in the region and when the cap
breaks.  Currently, the moisture is to the south in Eastern OK and
into Arkansas. This moisture is currently moving further west into
OK as of late morning and is expected to move north into Kansas.
This is expected to continue through afternoon today and will
serving to help destabilize the atmosphere in CWA.  How fast this
moisture advection occurs this afternoon is still in question and
creates a significant amount of uncertainty for the possibility of
thunderstorms this afternoon.  To add to this uncertainty, most of
the BUFKIT soundings show a decent cap in place over much of South
Central and Southeast Kansas this afternoon through sunset. By
sunset, the dryline is expected to encroach on the CWA from the west
and provide the needed push to kick off the thunderstorm activity.
Due to the late arrival of the quality moisture, this dry line will
be rather diffuse so the initiation point/location of this
thunderstorm activity is difficult to identify.  Given this
uncertainty and the presence of a decent cap over much of the CWA,
it is looking like thunderstorm activity will not start until closer
to sunset rather than this afternoon.  That said, if an updraft is
able to break through, the mid level cap this afternoon, it will
grow up scale quickly as the mid and upper level dynamics are very
supportive of severe thunderstorms.  This will make this a low
chance but high impact possibility for this afternoon.  As sunset
approaches, this will change dramatically with a much higher
likelyhood of severe thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorms are
expected to develop to the west of the CWA and enter the CWA around
sunset. By this time, the moisture will be in place and will create
conducive environment for severe thunderstorm activity.  Large,
damaging hail, damaging winds and with a few strong tornadoes are
possible during the evening.  This activity will move across the CWA
with this thunderstorm activity likely coming together into a more
linear or squall line mode as it moves into the I-135 corridor. Once
this occurs, high winds (65+ mph) are expected but large hail and an
isolated tornado can`t be ruled out.  This thunderstorm activity is
expected to push through the CWA during the overnight with Southeast
Kansas likely to see some residual thunderstorm activity Sunday
morning but this will be pushing out of the region.

Sunday the main area of showers and thunderstorms will push to the
east and north.  This activity may linger in these areas for much of
the afternoon but do not expect severe weather to linger and is
expected to push off to the east.  Monday high pressure will
dominate and keep the shower and thunderstorm activity out of the
forecast.  Temperatures are expected to remain near normal for this
time and through the end of the week.  Rain chances increase by mid
week and into end of the week.  At this time, the best chance for
rain look to be toward the end of the week with smaller chances on
Wednesday.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Sat May 25 2024

VFR conditions are expected for the first six or so hours of the TAF
period. From 23Z to 04Z tonight, thunderstorm chances ramp up
significantly. Confidence on location and timing is rather low
(~30%) so left the thunderstorm activity out of the TAF for this
cycle until thunderstorms actually "show themselves". Given
this uncertainty, if thunderstorms do occur, there is a good
chance for hail (>1") and winds in excess of 60Kts. The greatest
chance for this activity will be in South Central Kansas,
affecting KHUT and KICT and to a lesser extent, KGBD and KSLN.
The risk of thunderstorm activity will continue through 08Z. By
this time, the thunderstorm activity will be in the KCNU area
and will slowly push out of the region.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...ELM
AVIATION...ELM