193
FXUS63 KICT 280917
AFDICT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
417 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic rain chances possible from this morning through the
beginning of next week. Strong storms are possible, but widespread
severe weather is not expected

- Near to slightly below average temperatures through the rest
  of the week, then a gradual warming trend starts this weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 346 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

This morning... Subtle WAA at 700 mb is helping to trigger some
elevated showers within an area of meager instability (less than 500
J/kg) across portions of northwest Kansas. These showers should
gradually intensify this morning as instability slightly improves,
and some widely scattered storms are possible along and west of the
Flint Hills. A couple of these storms could produce half-inch hail,
but widespread strong to severe storms are not expected given the
less than ideal environment. This activity should gradually come to
an end by early afternoon. Given the isolated to widely scattered
spatial coverage, widespread rainfall is not expected. By this
afternoon, most locations should dry out, and temperatures will
generally top out around 80.

This Afternoon-Next Monday... A weak upper shortwave trough
will skate over the High Plains late this afternoon, and with
moderate instability, a complex of storms is expected to develop
across eastern Colorado/western Kansas and quickly move
eastward this evening into tonight. The lack of instability east
of US 281 will limit the eastward extent of these storms, but
left over showers remain possible late tonight west of I-135.
Wednesday will likely remain dry for much of the day, and storm
chances really don`t return until Thursday morning as a more
defined shortwave trough approaches the region. Multiple round
of storms are possible Thursday and Thursday night, and global
deterministic and ensemble models suggest Thursday has the best
chance of widespread rainfall this week. Thursday morning`s
storms will likely be a result of mid-level WAA and moisture
transport, and this activity will move north and east by late
morning/early afternoon. As a result of clearing out Thursday
afternoon, moderate instability should be in place across much
of forecast area. Storms are forecast develop across the High
Plains early in the afternoon and progress eastward into the
favorable airmass late Thursday evening/Thursday night. Weak shear
appears to be the main limiting factor for more organized
severe storms, but storms will likely at least produce small
hail and gusty winds as they move into the forecast area from
the west. Rain chances should come to an end from west to east
late Thursday night into Friday morning.

Additional embedded waves in northwest to zonal flow will help
to keep low rain chances in the forecast for Friday through next
Monday. Temperature-wise, warmer conditions are expected this
weekend towards the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1232 AM CDT Tue May 28 2024

Main aviation concern will be a few storms mainly this morning.

Mid level moisture transport is expected to ramp in toward 12z
across southwest and south central KS which will result in a few
storms developing toward 12z. For now, will only mention VCTS at
KICT and KHUT in the 12z-18z time frame. Bases on any storms
will generally be around 10,000ft or higher due to the elevated
nature of showers and storms. Any site that does not experience
a storm can expect VFR conditions.

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JC
AVIATION...RBL