043
FXUS62 KILM 050105
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
905 PM EDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Humidity and storm coverage will increase over the next few
days before a Thursday night or Friday morning cold front. The
weekend will bring seasonable temperatures and rain-free
conditions, with only slight rain chances returning on Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Forecast on track with mainly iso convection inland, over the
Pee Dee area, set to dissipate with loss of heating after
sunset. Otherwise mainly clear skies.

Aviation discussion updated for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 19Z, cumulus field has become most developed across
Williamsburg, inland Georgetown and southern Florence counties...as
well as along the inflection point of the sea breeze front across
New Hanover and Brunswick counties. These would be the favored areas
for initial shower/tstm development over the next couple of hours.
Any activity that does manage to fire up this afternoon and
evening should dissipate after sunset with the loss of heating.
Lows overnight will only fall into the upper 60s...held a couple
of degrees above climo in light return flow. Wednesday is
shaping up to be similar to today, with a bit more convective
activity as some shortwave energy aloft makes its way across the
area. The sea breeze should shield the immediate coast. Upper
80s will be common Wednesday, with mid 80s at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Isentropic upglide Wednesday night will benefit from some weak mid
level forcing in the form of a few vorticity centers. Low level wind
fields and the strength of the mid level vorts strengthen Thursday
albeit only very slightly. The end result should be be a pretty
healthy scattering of showers and thunderstorms. Stability/shear
profiles will not be supportive of severe weather. Cold front drops
in Thursday night, possibly even pushing through according to some
of the faster solutions, which seemingly are gaining support.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Based upon the aforementioned timing differences there is a bit of
uncertainty regarding Friday`s post-frontal highs. But given that
some solutions are slower and the CAA often lags the wind shift here
Little changes were made. The more noticeable airmass change is
slated for Friday night, followed by a seasonable Saturday and
Sunday. Models seem to be displaying a normal bias of re-introducing
moisture and rain chances, some as soon as Sunday. The better
chances of returning POPs, albeit low ones seems more likely on
Monday in weak surface and zonal mid level flow.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR through the TAF period. A light SW return flow will
continue around Atlantic high pressure with a warm and humid air
mass. Winds will back Wed aftn in sea breeze. Convection this
evening mainly in the vicinity of FLO will end with today`s
loss of heating. Another round of shwrs/tstms is expected Wed
aftn, with a slight uptick compared to today with a passing late
day shortwave.

Extended Outlook...Showers/thunderstorms will be a little more
widespread Thursday ahead of a front. VFR expected Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...
Bermuda high pressure will maintain return southerly flow across the
waters through Wednesday. Winds speeds near shore may gust up to 20
kts once the sea breeze develops...otherwise generally 10-15 kt.
Waves will be dominated by a 2 ft SE swell at 7-8 seconds, with
a one ft SW wind wave around 4 seconds.

Wednesday night through Sunday... Prefrontal SW flow to start the
period, along with 2-4ft seas that will be mainly shorter period
wind waves. Low level wind fields increase Thursday as boundary
approaches, but winds and seas will remain below SCA thresholds even
as the stray 25kt gust becomes tough to rule out. Veering lags just
a bit, and there are still some timing differences, but wind should
really be turning Friday night into Saturday, possibly as far
as to the north before some recovery. The period ends as it
began with SW winds and generally a wind wave as opposed to
swell.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...RGZ
NEAR TERM...CRM
SHORT TERM...MBB
LONG TERM...MBB
AVIATION...RGZ
MARINE...ILM